3 days ago
Gold Prices Near ₹1.53 Lakh Test India’s Festive Buying
India’s festive season is beginning with Ganesh Chaturthi, when many people traditionally buy gold.
Gold is much more expensive than it was at this time last year.
Experts still expect people to buy gold for celebrations, gifts, and weddings.
However, shoppers may purchase smaller jewellery items, coins, or bars instead of expensive pieces.
Some customers may exchange old jewellery or upgrade it.
Gold prices could move up or down because of interest rates, the dollar, global tensions, and inflation data from the United States.
One expert expects gold to stay between about ₹1,50,000 and ₹1,57,000 per 10 grams.
The suggested approach is to buy during price dips instead of rushing to buy after a sharp rise.
MCX gold October futures were down 0.09% at ₹1,53,618 per 10 grams.
Gold prices are about 45–50% higher than during Ganesh Chaturthi last year.
Experts expect festive gold demand to remain resilient, although buyers may choose smaller purchases.
Coins, lightweight jewellery, bars, customised bullion, and exchange-led purchases may gain preference.
Augmont’s Renisha Chainani recommends buying on dips, with gold expected to trade near ₹1,50,000–₹1,57,000.
- Who
- Indian gold consumers, jewellers, investors, and industry experts including Kaushlendra Sinha, Darshan Desai, and Renisha Chainani.
- What
- Gold buying during India’s festive and wedding season is being assessed as prices remain near ₹1.53 lakh per 10 grams.
- Where
- India’s physical gold market and the MCX futures market.
- When
- During the Ganesh Chaturthi-led festive season; MCX October futures were quoted at the reported level in today’s trading.
- Why
- Festive, gifting, and wedding demand may support purchases, while elevated prices and global factors could influence buying decisions and gold prices.
Reasons to Keep Buying
Reasons to Buy Carefully
Festive demand
Reasons to Keep Buying
Kaushlendra Sinha and Darshan Desai expect festive, gifting, and wedding-related demand to remain supportive or increase despite high prices.
Reasons to Buy Carefully
Higher prices may make consumers more measured, leading them toward smaller-ticket purchases instead of large jewellery acquisitions.
Timing the purchase
Reasons to Keep Buying
Consumers may continue buying because Ganesh Chaturthi traditionally begins India’s festival-led gold demand season.
Reasons to Buy Carefully
Renisha Chainani recommends buying on dips rather than aggressively chasing rallies, with prices expected to remain within a broad range.
Price outlook
Reasons to Keep Buying
Softer inflation data, a weaker dollar, or sustained geopolitical uncertainty could support higher gold prices, potentially toward $4,400 within the cited range.
Reasons to Buy Carefully
Hotter US inflation data could strengthen the case for a September rate hike, raise yields, and put pressure on gold prices.
Key facts
- MCX October futures
- ₹1,53,618 per 10 grams, down 0.09% in the reported session
- Year-on-year price increase
- Gold prices are around 45–50% higher than during Ganesh Chaturthi last year
- Expected demand
- Experts expect festive demand to remain resilient despite elevated prices
- Likely buying preferences
- Smaller purchases, lightweight jewellery, coins, bars, customised bullion, and exchange-led purchases
- Expected trading range
- Approximately $4,300–$4,500, or ₹1,50,000–₹1,57,000 per 10 grams
- Suggested strategy
- Buy on dips and sell into rallies rather than chase sharp price increases
- Key market drivers
- US interest-rate expectations, the dollar, inflation data, geopolitical tensions, and domestic physical demand
Quotes
Kaushlendra Sinha
CEO of the Indian Association for Gold Excellence and Standards (IAGES)
“As we move into the coming weeks, we expect festive buying and gifting to become a stronger demand driver, particularly for coins, bars and customised bullion. The week ahead could remain volatile, with global interest-rate expectations, the dollar, geopolitical developments and domestic physical demand shaping prices,”
livemint.com
“Ganesh Chaturthi is the onset of the festival season in India and sets the sentiment for festival-led gold buying. Despite the prices being 45–50% higher than they were during Ganesh Chaturthi last year, the demand for the precious metal is expected to remain resilient this season,”
livemint.com
Sources
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