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Rajiv Dogra Warns China’s Ambitions Challenge India and America
Rajiv Dogra is a former Indian diplomat who has written a book about why countries become stronger or weaker.
He says America helped build a global system after World War II, but that system is now becoming weaker.
He believes China wants to become the world’s most powerful country and sees India as an obstacle.
He warns that disagreements between India and China could become dangerous.
Dogra says China may be more careful about attacking Taiwan because it is studying what happened in Ukraine.
He also says China has economic problems and that many of its generals have been dismissed.
He thinks BRICS gives countries an alternative group, but it cannot quickly replace the US dollar or create a new world order.
Dogra argues that India should not depend too heavily on America.
He says India will need to make its own choices as global tensions change.
Former diplomat Rajiv Dogra says China wants to replace America as the world’s leading power.
Dogra argues India-China tensions could carry a serious risk of escalating into a wider conflict.
He says the Ukraine war may have made China more cautious about attacking Taiwan.
Dogra describes America’s post-1945 world order as weakened by unilateral actions and institutional disruption.
He says India must preserve strategic independence because neither Trump nor a future US president will fundamentally change India-US relations.
- Who
- Rajiv Dogra, a former Indian ambassador and consul general, is interviewed by Firstpost.
- What
- Dogra discusses China’s ambitions, India’s strategic choices, the weakening US-led order, BRICS, and conflicts in Ukraine and West Asia.
- Where
- The interview was published by Firstpost.
- When
- The interview refers to Donald Trump’s return to the White House in January 2025; its publication date is not stated.
- Why
- Dogra is discussing his book, "How Nations Fail and the Unmaking of America’s World," and the geopolitical changes affecting India.
Dogra’s Risk-Focused Assessment
Cautious Interpretation
China’s challenge to India
Dogra’s Risk-Focused Assessment
Dogra says China’s goal of becoming the world’s leading power may require subjugating India, making the bilateral relationship persistently uneasy and potentially dangerous.
Cautious Interpretation
Dogra also cautions that speculation about China may be unreliable because it is a closed society, and he says conflict is a possibility rather than a certainty.
China and Taiwan
Dogra’s Risk-Focused Assessment
Dogra argues the Ukraine war has restrained China by showing the difficulties and costs of military intervention.
Cautious Interpretation
He warns that restraint cannot be guaranteed because leaders may not always make entirely rational decisions.
The American-led world order
Dogra’s Risk-Focused Assessment
Dogra says US actions, especially under Trump, have weakened international institutions, increased distrust and disrupted supply chains.
Cautious Interpretation
He says the order has not necessarily collapsed and that a replacement world order cannot be created quickly because it requires extensive planning and resources.
Key facts
- Interviewee
- Rajiv Dogra, former ambassador to Italy, Romania, Moldova and Albania, and former Indian consul general in Karachi.
- Book discussed
- "How Nations Fail and the Unmaking of America’s World".
- China’s stated ambition
- According to Dogra, China wants to become the world’s number one power by replacing America.
- Taiwan assessment
- Dogra says an attack would not be easy because Taiwan has missile capabilities and Chinese forces would have to cross the sea.
- China’s economy
- Dogra estimates the US economy at $38–39 trillion and China’s at about $20 trillion.
- BRICS assessment
- Dogra says BRICS offers an alternative in aspirations and is considering trade in national currencies, but cannot immediately replace the dollar.
- India-US relations
- Dogra says Trump or no Trump will not make a major difference because India and America are not fully strategically aligned.
Quotes
Deng Xiaoping
Chinese leader reportedly responding to Margaret Thatcher’s warning about taking over Hong Kong
“I’ll take it over in one afternoon.”
firstpost.com
Sources
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