1 hr ago
Centre Rejects 2.6% GDP Claim, Defends 7.8% Growth
The government says India's economy grew by 7.8 percent in the first quarter.
A former finance secretary argued that growth was closer to 2.6 percent.
He reached that figure by using an older estimate of last year's economy.
The government says this is not a fair comparison.
It says the older estimate used a different method for calculating GDP.
Officials also said the comparison used current prices instead of constant prices.
The government pointed to strong production of steel, cement and cars as evidence of growth.
It said changes to the GDP figures were part of the normal process of adding new information.
The Central government rejected a claim that first-quarter GDP growth was closer to 2.6 percent.
MoSPI Secretary Saurabh Garg said the claim compared current-price figures and different GDP base-year series.
Former finance secretary Subhash Chandra Garg said growth would have been about 2.6 percent without a downward revision to last year's GDP.
The government defended the 7.8 percent expansion by citing strong volume growth in steel, cement and automobiles.
Q1 FY2025-26 current-price GDP estimates changed from Rs 80.32 lakh crore to Rs 80.44 lakh crore and then Rs 80.00 lakh crore.
- Who
- The Central government and MoSPI Secretary Saurabh Garg responded to a claim by former finance secretary Subhash Chandra Garg.
- What
- The government rejected a 2.6 percent GDP-growth calculation and defended the reported 7.8 percent expansion.
- Where
- New Delhi.
- When
- The response was issued on Wednesday and concerned Q1 FY2025-26 estimates.
- Why
- The government said the 2.6 percent calculation improperly compared different price measures and superseded GDP base-year series.
Critics' view
Government's view
GDP growth calculation
Critics' view
Subhash Chandra Garg said growth would have been about 2.6 percent in current prices if last year's GDP had not been revised downward.
Government's view
Saurabh Garg said the calculation was flawed because it compared current-price figures and used an old GDP series against figures from the new series.
Reason for revised figures
Critics' view
The criticism suggests that reducing the previous year's GDP could mechanically make the latest growth rate appear higher.
Government's view
The government said the changes reflected the normal revision cycle and the incorporation of additional information, including updated industrial and price data.
Evidence of economic expansion
Critics' view
The alternative calculation questions whether the reported 7.8 percent rate accurately represents growth.
Government's view
The government cited strong volume growth in steel, cement and automobiles as support for the 7.8 percent figure.
Key facts
- Reported GDP growth
- 7.8 percent in the first quarter
- Alternative claim
- About 2.6 percent, according to former finance secretary Subhash Chandra Garg
- Old GDP estimate cited
- Rs 86.05 lakh crore under the 2011-12 base-year series
- Initial new-series estimate
- Rs 80.32 lakh crore for Q1 FY2025-26 at current prices
- Subsequent revisions
- The estimate was revised to Rs 80.44 lakh crore and then Rs 80.00 lakh crore
- New base year
- The latest figures use the 2022-23 base year
- Data cited by government
- Strong volume growth in steel, cement and automobiles
Quotes
Saurabh Garg
Secretary in India’s Ministry of Statistics and Programme Implementation
“It is unfortunate that comparison is being made of apples and oranges”
thehansindia.com
Sources
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