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Government Rejects 2.6% Claim, Defends India’s 7.8% GDP Growth
Subhash Chandra Garg said India’s economy grew by only about 2.6% during the June quarter.
The government disagreed with his calculation.
It said he compared numbers made using two different GDP systems.
The newer system uses 2022–23 as its base year, while the older system used 2011–12.
Officials said numbers from different systems cannot be fairly compared.
Using the newer system, nominal GDP grew by 10.3%.
Real GDP, which removes the effect of price changes, grew by 7.8%.
The Congress party said the revisions made the government’s growth figure look better.
The dispute is mainly about which data series should be used and how revisions should be interpreted.
Former finance secretary Subhash Chandra Garg said India’s June-quarter GDP growth was about 2.6%.
The government said Garg compared ₹88.27 lakh crore from the new GDP series with ₹86.05 lakh crore from the old series.
Officials called the comparison statistically invalid because the two figures use different methodologies and base years.
Under the 2022–23 base-year series, nominal GDP grew 10.3% and real GDP grew 7.8% in Q1 FY2026–27.
The Congress party alleged that revisions to earlier GDP figures made current growth appear stronger.
- Who
- The government, the Ministry of Statistics and Programme Implementation, former finance secretary Subhash Chandra Garg, and the Congress party.
- What
- A dispute over whether India’s June-quarter real GDP growth was 2.6% or the officially reported 7.8%.
- Where
- India.
- When
- In the June quarter, or Q1 FY2026–27; the claim and political responses were reported on September 1–2, 2026.
- Why
- Garg’s estimate used figures from different GDP series, while the government says growth must be calculated using figures based on the same methodology.
Subhash Chandra Garg and Congress
Government and Statistics Ministry
Reported growth rate
Subhash Chandra Garg and Congress
Garg argued that growth would have been substantially lower than 7.8% if earlier GDP figures had not been revised. Congress described the alternative estimate as about 2.6%.
Government and Statistics Ministry
The government said the official real GDP growth rate is 7.8% under the updated 2022–23 base-year series.
Effect of revisions
Subhash Chandra Garg and Congress
Congress alleged that lowering previous-year GDP estimates made the latest growth rate appear stronger than it really was.
Government and Statistics Ministry
Officials said the revised methodology applies to the full historical series and that earlier figures cannot be selectively retained.
Validity of the 2.6% calculation
Subhash Chandra Garg and Congress
Garg’s calculation compared the latest nominal GDP figure with an older figure and used the result to question the official growth assessment.
Government and Statistics Ministry
Officials said comparing ₹88.27 lakh crore from the new series with ₹86.05 lakh crore from the old series is incompatible and statistically meaningless.
Key facts
- Official real GDP growth
- 7.8% in Q1 FY2026–27 under the 2022–23 base-year series
- Official nominal GDP growth
- 10.3% in the June quarter
- New-series nominal GDP
- Increased from ₹80 lakh crore to ₹88.27 lakh crore
- New-series real GDP
- Increased from ₹75.46 lakh crore to ₹81.36 lakh crore
- Figure used in the disputed comparison
- ₹86.05 lakh crore under the older 2011–12 base-year series
- GDP-series changes
- The revised series changed the base year, sectoral weights, estimation methods, price treatment, data sources, and historical estimates
- Disputed estimate
- Garg’s calculation produced growth of roughly 2.6%
Quotes
Subhash Chandra Garg
Former Finance Secretary who questioned India’s revised GDP figures.
“Real GDP growth is 2.6%, not 7.8%. The government is good at revising the base-year data so that it can project GDP growth as high as 7.8%.”
opindia.com
“The 7.8 per cent figure looks impressive on the face of it, but we should examine the reality behind it.”
opindia.com
Sources
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