3 weeks ago

Kotak Warns IT Sector Faces Tough Year Amid AI Deflation

Kotak Warns IT Sector Faces Tough Year Amid AI Deflation
Why IT sector may face tough year ahead – Kotak warns AI gains can’t offset revenue deflation for TCS, Infosys, HCLTech · financialexpress.com

Smart computer programs called AI are helping companies build software faster.

Big technology companies in India, like TCS and Infosys, help other companies with their computer work.

When AI does some of that work, customers need fewer hours of help from the tech companies.

That means the big tech companies earn less money from their regular services.

A research company called Kotak thinks the tech companies will have a hard year ahead.

AI business is growing quickly, but it is not big enough yet to replace the money being lost.

Some smaller tech companies, like Persistent Systems, are doing better by winning new customers.

The big companies are saving money by cutting costs, such as delaying pay raises.

Even though they earn less, they are still keeping their profits safe.

Key facts

Analyst Firm
Kotak Institutional Equities
TCS AI Revenue (annualised)
$2.6 billion, up 13.6% QoQ
HCLTech Advanced AI Revenue (annualised)
$688 million, up 10.6% QoQ
Infosys AI Revenue Share
8.2% of overall revenue
Expected September Quarter Growth (Tier-1)
0-2% sequential revenue growth
Most Affected Firms
TCS, Infosys, Wipro, HCLTech
Better Positioned Firms
Persistent Systems, Hexaware, Coforge
Margin Protection Measures
Layoffs, delayed wage hikes, lower variable pay, rupee depreciation

Quotes

Kotak Institutional Equities

Analyst firm Kotak Institutional Equities

“"The headwinds are manifesting as lower volumes/spending in software development programs and higher pricing pressure in managed services deals. These impact topline growth for the industry."”
financialexpress.com
“"IT companies will face headwinds from another year of moderate growth, pricing pressure in the base business, AI-related investments and transition costs in deal ramp-ups."”
financialexpress.com

Sources

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