3 weeks ago
Kotak Warns IT Sector Faces Tough Year Amid AI Deflation
Smart computer programs called AI are helping companies build software faster.
Big technology companies in India, like TCS and Infosys, help other companies with their computer work.
When AI does some of that work, customers need fewer hours of help from the tech companies.
That means the big tech companies earn less money from their regular services.
A research company called Kotak thinks the tech companies will have a hard year ahead.
AI business is growing quickly, but it is not big enough yet to replace the money being lost.
Some smaller tech companies, like Persistent Systems, are doing better by winning new customers.
The big companies are saving money by cutting costs, such as delaying pay raises.
Even though they earn less, they are still keeping their profits safe.
Kotak Institutional Equities expects Indian IT companies to face another challenging year of moderate growth and pricing pressure.
AI adoption is reducing billable hours in software development and increasing pricing pressure in managed services deals.
Tier-1 firms such as TCS, Infosys, Wipro and HCLTech are more affected, while Persistent Systems, Hexaware and Coforge have offset pressures via market share gains.
TCS reported annualised AI revenue of $2.6 billion (up 13.6% QoQ), HCLTech reported $688 million (up 10.6% QoQ), and Infosys' AI revenue contributes 8.2% of overall revenue.
Kotak expects Tier-1 IT companies to report 0-2% sequential revenue growth in the September quarter, with margins protected by cost controls.
- Who
- Kotak Institutional Equities issued the warning; affected companies include TCS, Infosys, Wipro and HCLTech.
- What
- Kotak warns the IT sector faces another tough year as AI-driven deflation in traditional services offsets gains from growing AI business.
- Where
- India's IT sector.
- When
- The analysis covers Q1FY27 performance and expectations for the September quarter (Q2FY27).
- Why
- AI adoption reduces development volumes and increases pricing pressure, while weak client spending and geopolitical tensions weigh on growth; AI revenue gains cannot yet offset the deflation.
AI as Growth Driver
AI as Deflationary Threat
AI's net impact on IT revenues
AI as Growth Driver
AI-related revenue is growing rapidly, showing companies are moving AI projects from testing to real-world deployment and Indian IT firms are playing a bigger role in AI services.
AI as Deflationary Threat
AI adoption cuts billable hours and raises pricing pressure, and deflation in the base business will more than offset tailwinds from new AI use cases in the near to medium term.
Key facts
- Analyst Firm
- Kotak Institutional Equities
- TCS AI Revenue (annualised)
- $2.6 billion, up 13.6% QoQ
- HCLTech Advanced AI Revenue (annualised)
- $688 million, up 10.6% QoQ
- Infosys AI Revenue Share
- 8.2% of overall revenue
- Expected September Quarter Growth (Tier-1)
- 0-2% sequential revenue growth
- Most Affected Firms
- TCS, Infosys, Wipro, HCLTech
- Better Positioned Firms
- Persistent Systems, Hexaware, Coforge
- Margin Protection Measures
- Layoffs, delayed wage hikes, lower variable pay, rupee depreciation
Quotes
Kotak Institutional Equities
Analyst firm Kotak Institutional Equities
“"The headwinds are manifesting as lower volumes/spending in software development programs and higher pricing pressure in managed services deals. These impact topline growth for the industry."”
financialexpress.com
“"IT companies will face headwinds from another year of moderate growth, pricing pressure in the base business, AI-related investments and transition costs in deal ramp-ups."”
financialexpress.com











