2 weeks ago
Indian Stocks Face Weak Starts as Technical Risks Increase
India’s stock market has been losing ground over two trading sessions.
Experts expected the market to start slightly lower on 18 August and almost unchanged on 19 August.
The Sensex and Nifty 50 both fell on the previous sessions.
Analysts use support levels to estimate where prices might stop falling.
They also use resistance levels to estimate where prices may struggle to rise.
On 19 August, the Sensex was below an important average price line, suggesting weaker short-term momentum.
Experts said the Nifty could fall further if it moved below important support near 24,000.
Bank Nifty was moving sideways rather than clearly rising or falling.
Overall, analysts advised caution until the market shows stronger buying or breaks out of its trading ranges.
Sensex and Nifty 50 were expected to open lower on 18 August and flat on 19 August amid mixed or weak global cues.
The Sensex fell from 77,728.16 on 18 August to 77,235.46 on 19 August, while the Nifty 50 declined from 24,287.65 to 24,154.90.
On 19 August, the Sensex closed below its 50-day EMA, with an RSI of 44.82 indicating weakening momentum, according to Sachin Gupta.
Analysts identified Nifty support around 24,050–24,000 and resistance around 24,250–24,400, warning that breaks below support could extend losses.
Bank Nifty remained range-bound, with analysts watching resistance near 57,500–58,000 and support between 56,800 and 57,100.
- Who
- Indian stock-market investors and analysts Sachin Gupta, Ponmudi R, Hitesh Rathi and Sudeep Shah.
- What
- Forecasts for the Sensex, Nifty 50 and Bank Nifty, including expected openings, support levels, resistance levels and possible market direction.
- Where
- India’s domestic equity market, including the Sensex, Nifty 50 and Bank Nifty.
- When
- The forecasts covered Tuesday, 18 August, and Wednesday, 19 August, following the preceding sessions’ closes.
- Why
- Mixed or weak global cues, recent declines and weakening technical indicators led analysts to expect cautious or bearish near-term trading.
Downside risks
Potential recovery
Nifty 50 direction
Downside risks
Ponmudi R and Hitesh Rathi said weakening technical structures and selling pressure could push the Nifty toward 24,000 or lower; Ponmudi cited a possible move toward 23,800.
Potential recovery
Analysts said holding support around 24,050–24,000 could attract buying or produce a technical rebound.
Sensex outlook
Downside risks
Sachin Gupta said the Sensex’s close below the 50-day EMA and RSI below 50 indicated deterioration in short-term momentum, with a break below 76,800–77,000 potentially extending the correction.
Potential recovery
Gupta said holding 76,800–77,000 could trigger a rebound toward 77,600–77,800; on 18 August, he also identified the 100-day EMA as a downside cushion.
Bank Nifty trend
Downside risks
The index lacked clear directional momentum and could weaken if it broke below support around 56,900–56,800.
Potential recovery
Bank Nifty remained above several longer-term EMAs in the 18 August assessment, and a breakout above resistance could begin a sustained trending phase.
Key facts
- 18 August expected opening
- Lower, with Gift Nifty around 24,310.5 and an 82.2-point discount to the previous Nifty futures close.
- 19 August expected opening
- Flat or muted, with Gift Nifty around 24,210 and a 20.1-point discount to the previous Nifty futures close.
- Sensex closes
- 77,728.16 on 18 August after falling 281.09 points; 77,235.46 on 19 August after falling 492.70 points.
- Nifty 50 closes
- 24,287.65 on 18 August after falling 78.35 points; 24,154.90 on 19 August after falling 132.75 points.
- Sensex levels on 19 August
- Support at 76,800–77,000, with a possible rebound toward 77,600–77,800 if that zone holds.
- Nifty 50 levels
- Support was identified around 24,050–24,000, while resistance ranged from 24,250–24,300 to 24,400.
- Bank Nifty levels
- Resistance was identified near 57,500–57,600 on 19 August and support near 56,900–56,800; earlier estimates placed resistance at 57,900–58,000 and support at 57,100–57,000.
Quotes
Sachin Gupta
Vice President of Technical Research at Choice Equity Broking
“For now, the market favours a wait-and-watch approach, with traders likely to seek confirmation of buying strength before taking aggressive positions on the upside.”
livemint.com
Sources
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