Business · Energy & Commodities · 2 hrs ago
Goldman Sachs raises oil price forecasts on supply risks
Goldman Sachs raised its oil price forecasts because it sees greater risks that supplies could be disrupted.
The bank now expects Brent crude to reach $105 a barrel in December and average $88 a barrel in 2027, 10% above its previous forecast.
Brent is a global oil benchmark, and its price can affect energy costs around the world.
Markets are concerned about renewed US-Iran tensions after the US midterm elections and possible weakness in Middle Eastern supplies.
Brent rose 14% in October to a six-month high, even as Middle Eastern oil supplies recovered close to prewar levels.
Goldman’s base case now includes a possible 1 million barrels a day in global supply losses in 2027, while attacks on shipping, damage to infrastructure and the Russia-Ukraine war are also risks.
Other banks have also raised forecasts, and the most actively traded oil contracts were last near $110 a barrel after falling on Monday.
Goldman Sachs raised its oil price forecasts, citing increased risks to supply.
It now expects Brent crude to reach $105 a barrel in December, up from $90, and average $88 a barrel in 2027.
The bank also raised its forecasts for US benchmark West Texas Intermediate crude.
Analysts said their 2027 base case now includes a possible global supply disruption of 1 million barrels a day.
Brent rose 14% in October to a six-month high, despite Middle Eastern crude supplies recovering close to pre-war levels.
- Who
- Goldman Sachs analysts, including Daan Struyven and Yulia Zhestkova Grigsby.
- What
- The bank raised its oil price forecasts because of increased supply risks.
- When
- The report was dated November 1, 2026, and the articles were published November 2, 2026.
- Where
- The risks cited include potential disruption to Middle Eastern oil supplies.
- Why
- Analysts said risks to supply, including possible escalation in the Middle East, could sustain a high near-term risk premium.
This story does not have two clearly opposing sides.
Brent crude rose 14% to a six-month high.
Goldman Sachs issued its report raising its oil forecasts.
The reports on Goldman Sachs's revised forecasts were published.
US midterm elections were scheduled, after which analysts said markets were pricing in a risk of escalation.
- Brent forecast for December
- $105 a barrel, up from $90
- Brent average forecast for 2027
- $88 a barrel, 10% above the previous forecast
- Possible 2027 global supply disruption
- 1 million barrels a day
- Brent's October rise
- 14%, reaching a six-month high
- Other banks' year-end Brent forecasts
- Morgan Stanley and ANZ: $105 a barrel
3 sources
What people are saying
High downside risks to supply are likely to keep a high risk premium in the near term.
Markets are increasingly pricing in an escalation after the US midterm elections on November 3 and the resulting possibility of weaker supplies from the Middle East.
With the timing and location of disruptions almost impossible to predict, our base case now includes a 1 million barrels per day global supply disruption in 2027.