Science & Tech · Science & Environment · 21 hrs ago
Early polar vortex disruption could bring colder air to parts of Europe
The polar vortex over the Arctic is expected to weaken and possibly split in early November, unusually early in the season.
The vortex is a band of strong winds that usually helps keep cold air near the North Pole.
If it is disrupted, cold air can move south, raising the chance of frost or snow in parts of Europe.
In Switzerland, cold air from the north or east could bring winter weather even to lower areas, but forecasters cannot yet say whether it will arrive.
In France, temperatures may be near seasonal averages or a little lower in the north, with mostly sunny, dry weather expected next week.
The early disruption is expected to be relatively weak, and forecasts suggest it may ease around November 11.
It could increase the chance of colder spells later in November or in December, but a generally mild winter is still forecast.
Forecasters expect the polar vortex to weaken or split unusually early, beginning around the end of October and early November.
A disruption could allow colder air to move south into parts of Europe, including Switzerland and France.
The effects are uncertain, and meteorologists say it is not possible to predict reliably whether cold air will reach those areas.
The expected split is considered weak, and the outlook still points towards a generally mild winter.
In France, forecasts indicate temperatures near seasonal norms or slightly below them in the north, with mostly sunny days expected the following week.
- Who
- Meteorologists and weather forecasters are assessing the polar vortex’s expected disruption and its possible effects on Europe.
- What
- The polar vortex is forecast to weaken or split unusually early, potentially increasing the chance of colder air moving south.
- When
- The weakening is expected from the end of October or early November 2026. Some forecasts suggest the split may ease around 11 November.
- Where
- The polar vortex is over the Arctic; possible effects are discussed for Europe, including Switzerland and France.
- Why
- A disrupted vortex may no longer contain cold air as effectively, allowing it to move south.
This story does not have two clearly opposing sides.
The previous record for an early disruption was set, according to RTL; 20 Minuten says a split began on this date.
Severe Weather Europe expects the polar vortex to begin gradually weakening, according to RTL.
Current model calculations indicate the vortex may become unstable or split.
Weather.com models indicate the split may already begin to weaken.
- Expected onset
- End of October and early November 2026
- Previous early-event date
- 28 November 1968
- Swiss risk
- Cold air from the north or east could bring frost or snow to lower elevations
- French temperatures
- 8°C in Belfort to 19°C in Perpignan on Sunday afternoon
- Forecast confidence
- Meteorologists say it cannot yet be reliably predicted whether cold air will reach Switzerland and Central Europe
3 sources
What people are saying
the polar vortex normally holds the cold air like a lid over the North Pole
A comparably early event has not been observed since measurements began in the 1950s