Business · Economy · 16 hrs ago
Russian banks post record profits as risks build behind the figures
Russian banks are reporting record profits even as the economy stagnates, according to an analysis by the Carnegie Russia Eurasia Center.
Much of the income comes from government bonds, subsidised loans and state payments, rather than ordinary lending.
The analysis says banks had 13.3 trillion rubles in loans classed as problematic by September, though only 3.7 trillion rubles were recorded as actual defaults.
Restructured loans and unpaid interest added to loan balances can let banks delay recognising losses and book income they have not received.
The government sells bonds to banks, which borrow from the central bank to buy them, while the central bank returns much of its profit to the state budget.
This cycle is called fiscal dominance, and Russia’s proposed budget predicts annual deficits of about 5 trillion rubles from 2027 to 2029; central bank chief Elvira Nabiullina has also called for limits on subsidised mortgages.
Russian banks reported record profits even as the economy stagnated, but a Carnegie Russia Eurasia Center analysis says state support and deferred losses obscure the risks.
Banks reported profits of 3.5 trillion rubles for 2025, and the central bank forecast profits of up to 4.4 trillion rubles for 2026.
The analysis says income came in part from government bonds, subsidized loans and budget payments.
Problematic corporate loans totalled 13.3 trillion rubles on September 1, while actual defaults were about 3.7 trillion rubles.
Regulatory exceptions and loan restructuring can delay loss recognition, while unpaid interest recorded as income rose to 4.6 trillion rubles this year.
- Who
- Russian banks and the Central Bank of Russia. The Carnegie Russia Eurasia Center analyzed the risks behind bank profits.
- What
- Banks reported record profits while state support and deferred loan losses obscured risks in their balance sheets.
- When
- Banks reported 2025 profits, and the central bank forecast 2026 profits. The analysis was reported on November 14, 2026.
- Where
- Russia.
- Why
- State bond purchases, subsidized lending and regulatory exceptions contributed to reported profits and delayed recognition of some losses.
This story does not have two clearly opposing sides.
Russian banks reported profits of 3.5 trillion rubles.
The central bank allowed banks to avoid higher provisions on restructured loans if the borrower provided a business plan.
Banks’ spending on provisions for corporate loans fell by 77 percent.
The finance ministry issued 1.4 trillion rubles in bonds, and banks bought 77 percent of them.
Problematic corporate loans stood at 13.3 trillion rubles, while actual defaults were about 3.7 trillion rubles.
t-online reported the analysis of risks behind Russian banks’ record profits.
- 2025 bank profits
- 3.5 trillion rubles
- 2026 profit forecast
- Up to 4.4 trillion rubles
- Problematic corporate loans
- 13.3 trillion rubles, or 12.9 percent of the corporate loan portfolio
- Actual corporate defaults
- About 3.7 trillion rubles, or 3.5 percent of the portfolio
- Unpaid corporate loan interest
- 4.6 trillion rubles this year, up by one-third