Business · Economy · 3 hrs ago
Indonesia’s Q3 Growth Expected to Slow but Stay Above 5%
Economists expect Indonesia’s economy to grow 5.2% in Q3, but the figure is a forecast, not yet the official result.
The estimate would extend a slowdown from 5.61% growth in the first quarter to 5.29% in the second.
Household spending is a key concern because it accounts for more than half of Indonesia’s economy and living costs have risen.
Inflation reached 3.28% in September, while retail sales and consumer credit showed only modest growth.
Investment rose 7.6% to Rp528.7 trillion, offering support as household demand remained cautious.
The finance minister has described growth as strong and expects the full-year economy to expand by 5.4% to 5.5%, while economists expect the third-quarter pace to ease.
Indonesia’s statistics agency is due to release the Q3 figures on November 5.
Indonesia’s economy is forecast to grow 5.20% year on year in the third quarter of 2026, according to a consensus of 15 institutions cited by CNBC Indonesia.
The forecast would keep growth above 5% but extend a slowdown for a second consecutive quarter.
Weak household consumption and slower government spending are expected to weigh on growth.
Investment and manufacturing activity are among the factors supporting the economy.
The government’s estimate for full-year 2026 growth is 5.4% to 5.5%.
- Who
- Indonesia’s economy; the forecast was compiled from 15 institutions by CNBC Indonesia.
- What
- Third-quarter 2026 growth is forecast at 5.20% year on year and 1.33% quarter on quarter.
- When
- The data was scheduled to be announced on November 5, 2026, at 11:00 WIB.
- Where
- Indonesia.
- Why
- Household consumption and government spending are expected to provide less support, while higher living costs are pressuring household purchasing power.
Government view
CNBC Indonesia consensus and Maybank Indonesia economist
Growth outlook
Government view
Finance Minister Suahasil Nazara said third-quarter growth remained strong, supported by domestic demand and exports.
CNBC Indonesia consensus and Maybank Indonesia economist
The consensus forecast growth of 5.20% year on year, while Maybank Indonesia economist Juniman expected a slowdown from the previous quarter.
Main drivers
Government view
Suahasil pointed to fiscal stimuli, investment, government spending and improving non-oil and gas exports.
CNBC Indonesia consensus and Maybank Indonesia economist
Juniman cited weaker household consumption and slower government spending, amid pressure from living costs and limited stimulus.
Indonesia’s economy grew 5.61% year on year.
Growth slowed to 5.29% year on year.
A 15-institution consensus forecast growth of 5.20% year on year and 1.33% quarter on quarter.
Statistics Indonesia was scheduled to announce third-quarter growth data at 11:00 WIB.
- Growth forecast
- 5.20% year on year in Q3 2026
- Quarter-on-quarter forecast
- 1.33% in Q3 2026
- Consensus
- 15 institutions, cited by CNBC Indonesia
- Full-year government estimate
- 5.4% to 5.5% growth in 2026
- Q3 investment
- Rp528.7 trillion, up 7.6% year on year
3 sources
What people are saying
Driven by household consumption from the continued government fiscal stimuli,
We estimate that Indonesia's economic growth in the third quarter will slow compared with the previous quarter, mainly driven by slower household consumption and government spending,