Science & Tech · Science & Environment · 1 hr ago
IUCN warns 96% of shallow-water reefs face collapse risk by 2075
The IUCN says 96% of shallow-water coral reef systems face an extremely high risk of collapse by 2075 under a middle-of-the-road climate scenario.
The assessment examined 127 tropical and subtropical reef regions around the world, including the Great Barrier Reef, the Coral Triangle and reefs in the Caribbean and Red Sea.
About 24% are already classed as critically endangered based on past and current conditions, but the share rises to 96% when projected warming is included.
Reefs can collapse when the hard corals that form their living foundation largely disappear and are replaced by algae, rubble and sponges.
Climate change is the most consistent threat, as warmer oceans bring more frequent and intense coral bleaching, while overfishing, pollution and coastal development add pressure.
Reefs support marine life, provide food and tourism income, and help protect shorelines, so their decline could affect millions of people.
The IUCN says reefs can still recover, but it calls for steep emissions cuts, stronger protection and restoration, and sustained investment in coastal ecosystems and communities.
The IUCN says 96% of the world’s shallow-water coral reef systems face an extremely high risk of collapse by 2075.
Its assessment says the share classified as critically endangered rises from 24% when future climate impacts are excluded to 96% when they are included.
The assessment examined 127 tropical and subtropical reef regions and identified climate change as the most consistent threat.
Overfishing, pollution and coastal development also threaten reefs.
The IUCN says reefs can still recover with emissions cuts, stronger protection and restoration.
- Who
- The International Union for Conservation of Nature (IUCN) issued the assessment.
- What
- It found that 96% of shallow-water coral reef systems face an extremely high risk of collapse by 2075.
- When
- The assessment was reported on October 22, 2026; the projected risk is by 2075.
- Where
- The assessment covers coral reef regions worldwide. Sources disagree on the conference location: Armenia or Albania.
- Why
- Climate change and ocean warming are the main drivers; overfishing, pollution and coastal development also contribute.
This story does not have two clearly opposing sides.
Global hard-coral cover increased by around 6%, showing reefs could recover when given enough time between bleaching events.
The fourth global mass bleaching event took place, described by the US government’s Coral Reef Watch as the most widespread on record.
The IUCN assessment was released, warning that 96% of shallow-water reef systems face an extremely high risk of collapse by 2075.
- Share at risk
- 96% of shallow-water coral reef systems
- Assessment scope
- 127 tropical and subtropical reef regions
- Area assessed
- 188,362 sq km
- Current critically endangered share
- 24% without future climate projections
- Projected warming scenario
- About 2.7°C above pre-industrial levels by 2100
4 sources
Lebensraum bis 2075 verschwunden: 96 Prozent aller Korallenriffe vom Absterben bedroht
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Almost every shallow-water coral reef on the planet faces ecosystem collapse by 2075, UN advisors say
Coral reefs face collapse by 2075 due to warming oceans, study warns
What people are saying
The risk of coral reef collapse is escalating, but this must be a wake-up call rather than a cause for despair
We stand to lose one of the most valuable ecosystems we have – the impacts of which will affect millions of people around the world.
It is not too late to give coral reefs a chance to recover, but it requires decisive action to tackle climate change and halt further ocean warming
Coral reefs are one of the clearest vital signs of the ocean’s health