Business · Economy · 2 hrs ago
AIReF warns Spanish labour costs will rise as productivity remains flat
Spain’s fiscal watchdog AIReF expects labour costs to rise by an average of 3% a year through 2030, while productivity per full-time worker stays flat.
The forecast covers Spain and assumes there is no change in current policies.
AIReF warns that higher costs without productivity gains could weaken Spain’s competitiveness by making its goods and services more expensive compared with those from other countries.
It says costs are set to rise by 3.3% in 2026 and 2027, and then by 2.3% to 2.7% a year through 2030.
The forecast does not include a proposed 5.3% rise in the minimum wage, which the government has yet to decide on.
Public-sector pay costs are forecast to rise 6.2% in 2027, the biggest increase since at least the pandemic, according to AIReF.
That estimate includes a planned 5% pay rise for public employees this year, plus changes in staffing and pay levels.
Spain’s independent fiscal watchdog expects labour costs to rise by an average of 3% a year through 2030 while productivity remains flat.
AIReF warns that the combination could weaken Spain’s external competitiveness.
It forecasts labour costs will rise by 3.3% in 2026 and 2027, while productivity per full-time-equivalent worker remains unchanged.
The estimate does not include a possible 5.3% rise in the minimum wage proposed by Deputy Prime Minister Yolanda Díaz.
AIReF expects public-sector employee pay to rise by 6.2% in 2027, a record increase since at least the pandemic.
- Who
- Spain’s Independent Authority for Fiscal Responsibility (AIReF).
- What
- It warned that labour costs are set to rise while productivity remains flat, potentially harming competitiveness.
- When
- The warning was reported on November 6, 2026; the forecast runs through 2030.
- Where
- Spain.
- Why
- AIReF says rising labour costs without sufficient productivity gains could increase unit labour costs and weaken external competitiveness.
This story does not have two clearly opposing sides.
Productivity per worker in Spain fell, according to AIReF.
AIReF forecasts labour costs will rise by 3.3% while productivity per full-time-equivalent worker remains flat.
AIReF expects public-sector employee pay to rise by 6.2%.
AIReF expects labour costs to keep rising at a slower pace, between 2.3% and 2.7%.
- Average annual labour-cost rise through 2030
- 3%
- Productivity forecast
- Flat
- Labour-cost rise in 2026 and 2027
- 3.3%
- Proposed minimum-wage rise
- 5.3%
- Public-sector employee pay rise in 2027
- 6.2%
What people are saying
A wage recovery without sufficient productivity gains could put pressure on unit labour costs, causing a deterioration in external competitiveness.
These restrictions could intensify wage pressures to attract and retain workers and, if higher costs are passed on to selling prices, prolong inflation.