Politics · Mexico · 4 hrs ago
US midterm results could reshape Mexico’s strategy toward Trump
Mexico’s approach to dealing with the Trump administration could change after the US midterm elections on November 3.
Researchers at Mexico’s National Autonomous University say the balance of power in the US Congress will affect trade, migration and border security.
They say Mexico should keep channels open with both Republicans and Democrats, regardless of the election result.
The vote will renew all 435 seats in the House, 33 or 34 Senate seats and 36 governorships.
The researchers say the outcome could influence the future of the US-Mexico-Canada trade pact, known as the USMCA, as Democrats may favor keeping it trilateral while the Republican administration seeks changes.
Both parties, they say, share an interest in limiting China’s economic influence in North America.
Mexico will need to consider the new political balance and its position on China in later trade negotiations.
US midterm election results could change Mexico’s strategy in negotiations with the Trump administration, Mexican university researchers say.
The researchers said the composition of the US Congress will affect bilateral relations and the future of the US-Mexico-Canada trade agreement.
They urged Mexico to maintain channels of communication with both Republicans and Democrats, whatever the results.
The elections could also influence US immigration policy and border security, as well as North American trade.
The vote is scheduled for November 3, 2026.
- Who
- Mexican researchers Silvia Núñez García, Estefanía Cruz Lera and Oliver Santín Peña of UNAM’s Center for Research on North America.
- What
- They said the US midterm results could reshape Mexico’s approach to negotiations with the Trump administration, including on trade, migration and border security.
- When
- The elections are scheduled for November 3, 2026.
- Where
- United States; the researchers discussed the implications for Mexico’s relationship with the United States.
- Why
- The composition of the US Congress could affect bilateral relations and the future of the US-Mexico-Canada trade agreement.
Democrats
Republicans
Trade agreement
Democrats
Democrats may favor continuing the trilateral US-Mexico-Canada agreement.
Republicans
The Republican administration seeks to change the trade relationship with Mexico and Canada, including ending the trilateral arrangement.
According to estimates cited at the researchers’ news conference, 34% of US citizens had already voted early.
The US midterm elections are scheduled to take place.
- Election date
- November 3, 2026
- House seats
- All 435 seats are being contested
- Senate seats
- Between 33 and 34 seats are being contested
- Governorships
- 36 are being contested
- Early voting
- 34% of US citizens had voted early, according to estimates cited at the news conference
What people are saying
Mexico has had to learn that it must have good friends within both the Republican Party and the Democratic Party
There is very high enthusiasm among Americans; the latest estimates say that 34 percent of citizens have already voted early and that many will get even with Trump’s policies at the ballot box
In terms of the US-Mexico-Canada trade agreement, the Democrats will go for the trilateral formula, which suits Mexico and Canada very well, but we must not overlook that the current Republican government seeks to end the trilateral relationship with both neighbors