Politics · Brazil · 6 hrs ago
Polls put Flávio Bolsonaro ahead of Lula in Brazil’s close runoff race
Flávio Bolsonaro leads Lula in four of five polls released on Friday, two days before Brazil’s 2026 presidential runoff.
The polls show a close contest, with the valid-vote gap ranging from 1.2 points for Lula to four for Flávio.
Most of those differences are within the polls’ margins of error, so the figures do not establish who will win.
Vox Brasil is the only poll putting Lula ahead, at 50.6% to Flávio’s 49.4% of valid votes.
A Datafolha poll released Thursday put the candidates level at 50% each, while Friday’s polls also show their rejection rates are close.
Many voters say their choice is already settled: one poll found 95% had decided, and another found 94.7% said their decision was final.
The runoff vote is due in two days, but the close polling leaves the outcome uncertain.
Flávio Bolsonaro is numerically ahead of Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva in four of five national polls published on Friday, October 23, ahead of Brazil’s 2026 presidential runoff.
Lula leads in the Vox Brasil poll, while the other four polls put Flávio ahead.
Among valid votes, the reported gaps range from 1.2 percentage points for Lula to four points for Flávio, with most results within the margin of error.
A Datafolha poll published on Thursday, October 22, showed the candidates tied at 50% of valid votes.
- Who
- Flávio Bolsonaro and Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva, the candidates in Brazil’s presidential runoff.
- What
- Polls show Flávio numerically ahead in four of five national surveys, while Lula leads in one.
- When
- The polls were published on Friday, October 23, two days before the 2026 runoff.
- Where
- Brazil.
- Why
- Not stated
This story does not have two clearly opposing sides.
A Datafolha poll showed Flávio at 51% and Lula at 49% of valid votes.
Datafolha reported the candidates tied at 50% of valid votes.
Four of five national polls put Flávio numerically ahead, while Vox Brasil put Lula ahead.
- National polls on October 23
- Four of five put Flávio ahead
- Veritá valid votes
- Flávio 51.3%; Lula 48.7%
- Real Time Big Data valid votes
- Flávio 52%; Lula 48%
- Alfa Inteligência valid votes
- Flávio 52%; Lula 48%
- Ipespe/Abrapel valid votes
- Flávio 50.5%; Lula 49.5%
- Vox Brasil valid votes
- Lula 50.6%; Flávio 49.4%