Business · Economy · 6 hrs ago
Conservative Senate may limit Lula’s tax-based fiscal measures
Christopher Garman says Brazil’s more conservative Senate could limit Lula’s fiscal plans in his fourth presidential term, which begins in 2027.
He said the Senate may make it harder for the government to adjust public finances by increasing revenue.
Revenue measures may need popular benefits to win approval, Garman said.
That would make it harder for Lula’s government to pass such measures than during his third term.
Lula’s approval and relations with Congress will shape his ability to govern, according to Garman.
He warned that governing could become more difficult if Lula’s popularity falls.
The discussion focused on what to expect from Lula’s next term, but no specific measures or legislative timetable were given.
A more conservative Senate is expected to make it harder for President Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva’s government to pass fiscal measures based on raising revenue.
Christopher Garman, Americas executive director at Eurasia Group, said revenue measures would need to be paired with a popular benefit to win approval.
He made the assessment during CNN Brasil’s WW Talks on Monday, November 9.
Garman said Lula’s approval ratings and the dynamics of the legislature would shape governability from 2027.
- Who
- Christopher Garman, Americas executive director at Eurasia Group, gave the assessment.
- What
- A more conservative Senate is expected to constrain Lula’s ability to pass fiscal measures through higher revenue.
- When
- Monday, November 9, 2026.
- Where
- During CNN Brasil’s WW Talks. A physical location is not stated.
- Why
- Garman said revenue measures would be approved only if paired with a benefit that has popular support.
This story does not have two clearly opposing sides.
Christopher Garman took part in the seventh edition of WW Talks and discussed expectations for Lula’s next term.
Garman said Lula’s approval ratings and the dynamics of the legislature would be decisive for governability.
- Speaker
- Christopher Garman
- Role
- Americas executive director at Eurasia Group
- Event
- Seventh edition of WW Talks
- Assessment
- A more conservative Senate is expected to constrain revenue-based fiscal measures
- Condition for approval
- Revenue measures would need to be paired with a benefit that has popular support
- Forecast period
- From 2027
2 sources
What people are saying
Compared with the third term, a more conservative Senate will restrict the government's ability to make fiscal adjustments through increased revenue. Any revenue measure on the table will only be approved if it comes with a benefit that has popular support.