Business · Markets · 14 hrs ago
Borsa Istanbul’s value-to-GDP ratio is 35% below its historical average
Borsa Istanbul has fallen sharply, with losses affecting many shares, including those in the BIST 30.
Ata Yatırım says the market’s value is now about 0.14 times Turkey’s GDP, 35% below its historical average of 0.21.
The ratio has also been far below average during past crises, including in 2001 and 2008.
Higher oil prices and geopolitical risks have weighed on Turkish shares, which have performed 7% worse than other emerging markets, according to the report.
Turkey imports oil, so expensive energy can delay expected declines in inflation and interest rates.
Five factors are expected to shape the market over the next 18 months, including regional conflicts, trade policy, domestic economic policy, politics and action on fund and governance issues.
Ata Yatırım expects oil prices to return to normal if the US and Iran reach an agreement, but says prices above $100–110 a barrel could pressure Turkey’s current account and growth.
It forecasts gradual interest-rate cuts in the fourth quarter of 2026, with the policy rate falling from 37% to 35% by year-end.
Borsa Istanbul’s market value-to-GDP ratio is 0.14, 35% below its historical average of 0.21, according to Ata Yatırım.
The report says the ratio has risen slightly over the two days before the article was published.
It notes that the ratio also fell well below its historical average after the 2001 and 2008 crises and the 2016 coup attempt.
Ata Yatırım says geopolitical risks and higher oil prices have delayed expectations for falling inflation and interest rates.
The report identifies five factors likely to shape Turkish equities over the next 18 months, including geopolitics, economic policy and fund developments.
- Who
- Ata Yatırım assessed the Turkish stock market in its October strategy report.
- What
- Borsa Istanbul’s market value-to-GDP ratio is 0.14, 35% below its historical average of 0.21.
- When
- The article was published on October 31, 2026. The report was published two days earlier.
- Where
- Borsa Istanbul, Turkey.
- Why
- The report points to weaker stocks, geopolitical uncertainty and higher oil prices; it says these have weighed on the market and delayed expectations for lower inflation and interest rates.
This story does not have two clearly opposing sides.
Turkish equities were affected negatively by four factors during the year, according to the report.
Geopolitical risk and oil prices rose after US operations against Iran, shortening positive expectations for Turkish stocks.
The report says geopolitical developments and a sudden rise in oil prices became decisive factors.
Ata Yatırım published its October strategy report, according to the article.
Habertürk reported that Borsa Istanbul’s market value-to-GDP ratio stood at 0.14, below its historical average.
- Current market value-to-GDP ratio
- 0.14
- Historical average market value-to-GDP ratio
- 0.21
- Gap below historical average
- 35%
- Expected Brent price range the economy can adapt to
- $80-95 per barrel
- Projected 2026 year-end policy rate
- 35%
1 source
What people are saying
This series generally suggests that the -1 standard deviation level is a good point to enter the market, and that historically it has traded above +1 standard deviation only for short periods.
We expect oil prices to normalize with the opening of the Strait of Hormuz, assuming in our base case that the US and Iran reach an agreement at some point.
We believe the Turkish economy can adapt to Brent oil prices in the range of $80-95 per barrel.