Politics · United States · 4 hrs ago
Poll finds Talarico and Paxton tied in Texas Senate race
A new poll finds James Talarico and Ken Paxton tied at 49% among likely voters in Texas’s U.S. Senate race.
Democrat Talarico and Republican Paxton are competing to replace Sen.
John Cornyn, who lost the Republican primary to Paxton.
Texas has not backed a Democrat in a statewide race for more than 30 years, making the contest a test of that long Republican run.
Talarico leads among Hispanic voters, who favor him by 30 points, while Paxton has strong support among White evangelical Christians and rural voters.
Even so, Texas voters favor Republican control of the Senate by four points, and the poll also finds Democrats more enthusiastic about voting.
Voters are divided over concerns that Talarico is too liberal or that Paxton is too close to President Trump.
The Senate seat will be decided in this year’s election, and the pollster says turnout and whether dissatisfied Republicans support Paxton could be crucial.
A Fox News poll found James Talarico and Ken Paxton tied at 49% each among likely Texas voters in the race for the U.S. Senate.
The poll was released Wednesday and marks a shift from last month, when Talarico led by two points.
The candidates are competing to replace Senator John Cornyn, who lost the Republican primary to Paxton.
Texas voters favor Republican control of the Senate by four points, 51% to 47%.
Talarico leads among Hispanic voters by 30 points, while Paxton leads among White evangelical Christians by 52 points.
- Who
- Democrat James Talarico and Republican Ken Paxton. They are seeking to replace Senator John Cornyn.
- What
- A Fox News poll found the candidates tied at 49% each among likely voters.
- When
- The poll was released Wednesday, October 21, 2026. Last month, Talarico led by two points.
- Where
- Texas.
- Why
- They are competing for the U.S. Senate seat held by John Cornyn, who lost the Republican primary to Paxton.
James Talarico
Ken Paxton
Poll support
James Talarico
Talarico has 49% support among likely voters.
Ken Paxton
Paxton has 49% support among likely voters.
Voter groups
James Talarico
Talarico leads among Hispanic voters by 30 points and Black voters by 65 points.
Ken Paxton
Paxton leads among White evangelical Christians by 52 points and rural voters by 21 points.
Concerns
James Talarico
53% of voters worry that Talarico’s positions are too liberal.
Ken Paxton
50% of voters are concerned Paxton is too close to Trump.
Talarico led Paxton by two points among likely voters, 51% to 49%.
A Fox News poll found Talarico and Paxton tied at 49% each.
- Poll result
- Talarico 49%; Paxton 49%
- Senate control preference
- Republicans 51%; Democrats 47%
- Hispanic voters
- Talarico 64%; Paxton 34%
- Talarico favorability
- 49% favorable; 48% unfavorable
- Paxton favorability
- 41% favorable; 58% unfavorable
2 sources
What people are saying
The race is going to come down to two basic questions
Do disaffected Republicans show up and, if so, do they grit their teeth and vote for a candidate who they have serious reservations about?