Politics · Brazil · 1 hr ago
Brazil’s close presidential runoff may hinge on voter turnout
Brazil’s presidential runoff pits Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva against Flávio Bolsonaro in a close contest.
Flávio led Lula by 2.2 million votes in the first round, while final polls put them within a few points of each other.
Whether voters turn out could help decide the winner, as many observers are watching abstention and blank or invalid ballots.
Turnout was 21.08% in the first round, and it has usually risen in Brazil’s second rounds.
Lula may need to win over Flávio voters as well as mobilize his own, because a small fall in abstention alone may not change the result.
Datafolha found Flávio slightly ahead among people who voted in the first round and among voters living near their polling place, while Lula led among those living farther away.
The election’s outcome remains uncertain, and the vote is due on Sunday, October 25.
Flávio Bolsonaro led Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva by 2.2 million votes, or 1.8 percentage points, in Brazil’s first-round presidential election.
The close runoff may be shaped by how many voters turn out and how first-round voters move between candidates.
A BBC-cited political scientist said a Lula comeback depends more on winning votes from Flávio than on lower abstention or fewer blank and null votes.
A Folha report said abstention could pose a greater risk to Lula, while Flávio held a slight numerical lead among voters who turned out in the first round.
- Who
- Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva and Flávio Bolsonaro are competing for Brazil’s presidency.
- What
- Voter turnout and transfers of votes may shape the runoff result.
- When
- The runoff is scheduled for Sunday, 25 October 2026.
- Where
- Brazil.
- Why
- The candidates are close, making turnout and the choices of first-round voters potentially decisive.
This story does not have two clearly opposing sides.
Abstention fell by 0.4 percentage points in the runoff, the only such decline since 1989, according to Mahlmeister.
Abstention was 21.08%, and Flávio led Lula by 2.2 million votes, or 1.8 percentage points.
Quaest interviewed 2,154 people aged 16 or older for a poll with a two-point margin of error.
Quaest published estimates putting Flávio at 43%–47% and Lula at 42%–46%, including undecided voters.
Voters are due to choose between Lula and Flávio in the runoff.
- First-round lead
- Flávio ahead by 2.2 million votes, or 1.8 percentage points
- First-round abstention
- 21.08%
- Quaest poll sample
- 2,154 people aged 16 or older
- Quaest poll dates
- 17–20 October 2026
- Datafolha among first-round voters
- Flávio 51%, Lula 49% of valid votes
- Runoff date
- 25 October 2026
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What people are saying
There is little room for abstention or blank and null votes to fall enough to make much difference.
The runoff is also a war of rejections.