Mexico’s public debt is projected to reach 56.4% of GDP by 2030

Mexico Evalúa says Mexico’s public debt will keep growing under the government’s current budget plans.

For 2027, the government proposes a primary surplus of 216.9 billion pesos, but the group estimates it would need 603.1 billion pesos to keep debt from rising as a share of the economy.

Official projections put debt at 56.4% of GDP by 2030, up from 54% in 2026.

In 10,000 economic simulations, Mexico Evalúa found a 48.4% chance that debt will exceed 60% of GDP by 2030.

Debt interest payments are expected to cost 1.66 trillion pesos in 2027, while pensions and interest together would take a larger share of GDP than spending on education, health, the rule of law and physical infrastructure.

Only four pesos of every 100 in projected revenue would remain available after committed spending.

If revenue targets are missed or support for Pemex rises, the government may need to borrow more or cut spending on services such as health, education and security.