Business · Energy & Commodities · 3 hrs ago
Aluminium Loses War Premium as Copper Prices Stay Elevated
At LME Week in London, industry leaders discussed demand, supply and the outlook for base metals.
Analysts expect copper prices to stay elevated through 2026, supported by supply strains and uncertainty over possible US tariffs on copper imports.
Their average copper price forecast is now $13,674 per ton for 2026 and $13,210 for 2027.
Copper prices are up 16% so far this year, while exchange inventories are uneven: US stocks have reached a record, and London Metal Exchange stocks have declined in October.
Improving aluminium supply has prompted lower price forecasts, with analysts pointing to recovering Middle East output, higher Indonesian production, strong Chinese smelter output and restarts in Europe.
The outlook matters because prices are exposed to economic conditions, supply disruptions and trade policy.
The US copper tariff review remains a key risk, and the administration has yet to say whether refined copper imports will be included.
Standard Chartered expects aluminium prices to ease as supply prospects improve, while copper prices are expected to remain elevated.
The analysts lowered their aluminium forecasts, citing a faster-than-expected recovery in Middle East supply, rising Indonesian output, strong Chinese smelter production and restarts in Europe.
They raised their average copper price forecasts to $13,674 per ton for 2026 and $13,210 per ton for 2027.
Copper prices have risen 16% year to date, supported by supply stresses and uncertainty over U.S. copper tariffs.
The outlook was discussed during LME Week 2026 in London, as the exchange reported higher trading activity.
- Who
- Standard Chartered’s commodity analysts issued the forecasts.
- What
- They lowered their aluminium price forecasts and raised their copper forecasts.
- When
- The article was published on October 22, 2026. LME Week 2026 began on Monday.
- Where
- The forecasts were discussed during LME Week in London.
- Why
- Aluminium supply prospects improved, while copper was supported by supply stresses and uncertainty over U.S. tariffs.
This story does not have two clearly opposing sides.
The London Metal Exchange recorded a 16% year-on-year increase in average daily turnover.
The nearby LME copper spread was mostly in backwardation from this month onward.
The pace of builds in Comex copper inventories picked up.
LME copper inventories continued to decline.
LME Week 2026 began in London.
- Copper forecast, 2026
- $13,674 per ton
- Copper forecast, 2027
- $13,210 per ton
- Copper price change
- Up 16% year to date
- Comex copper inventories
- 790.4kt, a fresh record high
- Yangshan copper import premium
- $137 per ton
- LME trading turnover
- Average daily turnover rose 16% year on year from January through September