Business · Energy & Commodities · 11 hrs ago
Bank of Russia sees higher oil price path in 2026-2027 than July forecast
The Bank of Russia expects Russian oil prices in 2026-2027 to follow a higher path than it projected in July.
The change reflects global oil prices in the third quarter of 2026 coming in above expectations.
The July forecast assumed that conditions in the Middle East would normalize sooner than they have.
The expected recovery of shipping through the Strait of Hormuz has been delayed, affecting the bank’s outlook.
In July, the bank lowered its 2026 oil price assumption for tax calculations from $65 to $60 per barrel, and set its 2027 and 2028 forecasts at $50 per barrel.
The updated baseline scenario now assumes higher Russian oil prices in 2026-2027 than the July forecast, though no revised figures are given here.
The Bank of Russia said its updated baseline scenario sees Russian oil prices in 2026-2027 following a higher path than assumed in July.
It said international oil prices in the third quarter of 2026 were above expectations.
The July forecast’s assumption that the Middle East situation would normalize did not materialize.
The updated scenario allows for a later recovery of navigation through the Strait of Hormuz.
In July, the Bank lowered its 2026 oil price outlook for taxation from $65 to $60 per barrel and revised its 2027 and 2028 forecasts down to $50 per barrel.
- Who
- The Bank of Russia.
- What
- It said Russian oil prices in 2026-2027 may follow a higher path than assumed in its July forecast.
- When
- The statement was published on November 5, 2026.
- Where
- The Bank of Russia issued the statement in its key rate discussion summary. The forecast concerns global oil prices and Russian oil prices.
- Why
- International oil prices in the third quarter of 2026 were above expectations, and the expected normalization of the Middle East situation did not materialize.
This story does not have two clearly opposing sides.
The Bank of Russia lowered its 2026 oil price outlook for taxation from $65 to $60 per barrel and revised its forecasts for 2027 and 2028 down to $50 per barrel.
International oil prices evolved above expectations.
The Bank of Russia published a key rate discussion summary saying its updated baseline scenario sees a higher path for Russian oil prices in 2026-2027 than assumed in July.
- Updated forecast
- Russian oil prices in 2026-2027 may follow a higher path than assumed in July
- 2026 taxation outlook
- Lowered from $65 to $60 per barrel in July
- 2027 and 2028 forecasts
- Revised down to $50 per barrel in July
- Strait of Hormuz
- Updated scenario assumes a later recovery of navigation
- Publication date
- November 5, 2026
What people are saying
The international oil prices in the third quarter of 2026 evolved above expectation. The assumption regarding the normalization timeline for the situation in the Middle East embedded in the July forecast did not materialize,
In such environment, the participants considered expedient to provide in the updated baseline scenario for later recovery of navigation over the Strait of Hormuz and higher path of Russian oil prices in 2026-2027 than assumed in July,