Business · Markets · 3 hrs ago
NH Investment sees KOSPI rising early in 2027, then weakening
NH Investment & Securities expects South Korea’s KOSPI to rise early in 2027, then weaken as the year progresses.
The forecast says foreign investors may return in the first half, alongside support from expected earnings growth and efforts to improve shareholder returns.
The bank expects European political and fiscal risks and changing global interest-rate expectations to weigh on stocks from the second quarter.
In the third quarter, US fiscal talks and scrutiny of whether AI investment can produce profits could add pressure.
Fiscal concerns could raise borrowing costs and make investors more cautious about company profits.
The forecast expects the market to recover in the fourth quarter if fiscal uncertainty eases and company earnings become clearer.
NH Investment says its AI timeline is based on assumptions, and the timing of any future downturn is uncertain.
NH Investment & Securities expects the KOSPI to rise in the first half of 2027 and weaken in the second half.
Its report attributes the expected early-year gains to foreign investment, earnings expectations and efforts to improve shareholder value.
The firm says European political and fiscal risks, US fiscal negotiations and higher capital costs could weigh on shares later in the year.
It forecasts a first-quarter rise, a second-quarter decline, further losses in the third quarter and a fourth-quarter rebound.
The report also says the AI investment cycle has not yet peaked, while noting that its long-term timing estimates are uncertain.
- Who
- NH Investment & Securities’ research team issued the outlook. Kim Byung-yeon, the firm’s head of investment strategy, discussed its findings.
- What
- The firm expects the KOSPI to rise early in 2027 and weaken later in the year.
- When
- The outlook was published on November 2, 2026, and concerns the 2027 market.
- Where
- South Korea’s KOSPI market.
- Why
- The firm expects early gains from foreign investment and shareholder-value efforts, followed by pressure from fiscal risks and higher capital costs.
This story does not have two clearly opposing sides.
The firm forecasts a KOSPI rise on earnings-growth expectations, financing conditions and hopes for improved shareholder value.
It expects the market to turn lower amid European political and fiscal risks and a reassessment of global interest rates.
It forecasts a deeper decline as US fiscal negotiations and scrutiny of AI monetisation weigh on shares.
It expects a rebound as year-end fiscal uncertainty eases and earnings visibility is assessed.
- Report
- 2027 annual outlook titled “Bottleneck Economy
- Publisher
- NH Investment & Securities Research Division
- Publication date
- November 2, 2026
- KOSPI outlook
- Rise in the first half of 2027; weaker performance in the second half
- US debt-limit X-date
- Expected at the end of 2027
- AI valuation estimate
- Possible overheating in the 2030s–2040s; the report says the timing is uncertain
What people are saying
Volatility is expected due to major external factors such as European politics and US fiscal issues.
The standards for evaluating corporate earnings growth and capital-raising conditions will continue to change.
In periods when the cost of capital rises, confidence in profitability will become even more important.
The current stage of AI and its future timing are interpretations and assumptions.