Politics · Spain · 1 day ago
GAD3 chief predicts a right-wing government after Spain’s November election
Spain is holding an early general election on November 29, after Prime Minister Pedro Sánchez brought the vote forward.
Narciso Michavila, head of polling firm GAD3, predicts a right-wing government led by Alberto Núñez Feijóo, the leader of the People’s Party (PP).
He says the PP could still get fewer votes than Sánchez’s PSOE, even if Feijóo becomes prime minister.
Michavila says the right has a bigger lead over the left than it did three years ago, but he does not rule out the PP and PSOE finishing close together.
He points to Vox’s strength and the weakness of parties left of the PSOE as factors that could shape which political bloc can govern.
Michavila also says pensioners make up 28% of voters and tend to turn out at high rates; the campaign and voting will determine the outcome.
GAD3 president Narciso Michavila predicts Spain will have a right-wing government after the November 29 general election.
He says Alberto Núñez Feijóo is most likely to become prime minister, while leaving open the possibility that the People’s Party receives fewer votes than Pedro Sánchez’s party.
Michavila says the right has a larger lead over the left than it did three years ago.
He also says Sánchez retains electoral resilience and that the People’s Party and Socialist Party could finish close together.
The election was brought forward by Sánchez, and Michavila says the timing made it harder for parties to the left of the Socialists to reach agreements.
- Who
- Narciso Michavila, president of polling firm GAD3, gave the forecast. The election will involve Spain’s political parties, including the People’s Party and the Socialist Party.
- What
- Michavila predicts a right-wing government after the election and says Feijóo is likely to become prime minister.
- When
- The election is scheduled for November 29, 2026.
- Where
- Spain.
- Why
- Michavila says the right’s advantage over the left is larger than it was three years ago, while parties to the left of the Socialists have struggled to agree.
This story does not have two clearly opposing sides.
Michavila discussed the coming election and his forecast on Al Rojo Vivo.
The official election campaign is scheduled to begin at midnight.
The sources identify this as the last day on which election polls may be published.
The official campaign is scheduled to end at midnight.
Spain is scheduled to hold its general election.
- Election date
- November 29, 2026
- Pollster
- GAD3
- GAD3 president
- Narciso Michavila
- Campaign start
- Midnight on November 13, 2026
- Campaign end
- Midnight on November 27–28, 2026
- Pensioners’ share of electorate
- 28%
3 sources
Narciso Michavila, presidente de GAD3, sobre el resultado de las elecciones generales 29N: «La distancia de la derecha sobre la izquierda es mayor a la de hace tres años»
El presidente de GAD3, Narciso Michavila, no descarta la victoria de Pedro Sánchez: "Dejo una carta abierta"
La apuesta de Michavila: "El presidente va a ser Feijóo, pero dejo una carta abierta a que el PP tenga menos votos que Sánchez"
What people are saying
I would say, if I had to bet right now, that the president will be Feijóo. And yet I leave open the possibility that Feijóo gets fewer votes than Pedro Sánchez.
Unlike three years ago, the distance between the right and the left is quite a bit greater, so for the left to govern, the comeback would have to be even more spectacular.
We have been warning that Pedro Sánchez was not collapsing, and it is clear that he still has staying power.
They are 28% of the vote, and older people also turn out to vote, unlike other age groups, which sometimes do not.
Posts on X
La apuesta de Michavila: "El presidente va a ser Feijóo, pero dejo una carta abierta a que el PP tenga menos votos que Sánchez"