Science & Tech · Science & Environment · 5 hrs ago
Fossil fuel emissions projected to dip in 2026 as Iran war hits oil use
The world's fossil fuel emissions are projected to fall 0.4% in 2026, to 38.2 billion tonnes of carbon dioxide.
The Global Carbon Project's estimate covers emissions from burning oil, gas and coal, and comes as countries meet at the UN climate summit in Antalya, Turkey.
The Iran conflict and closure of the Strait of Hormuz pushed oil prices up, reducing oil use and contributing to the projected decline.
More solar and wind power and electric vehicles also helped meet rising energy demand, while coal emissions are still expected to rise.
The decline does not mean total emissions will fall: emissions from land-use change, including deforestation, are projected to push total CO2 emissions to a record 43.3 billion tonnes.
Researchers say clean energy growth has not yet brought a lasting fall in global emissions, and emissions could rebound when oil tensions ease.
The remaining carbon budget for limiting warming to 1.5C is about 150 billion tonnes, which researchers say could be used up in less than four years at current rates.
Global fossil-fuel carbon dioxide emissions are projected to fall by 0.4% in 2026, to 38.2 billion tonnes.
The Global Carbon Project says the decline is driven partly by an energy shock linked to the Iran conflict and disruption in the Strait of Hormuz.
Oil emissions are projected to drop by nearly 2%, while coal emissions are expected to rise slightly.
Growth in solar, wind and electric vehicles is also helping meet rising energy demand, but researchers say it is not yet enough to ensure a sustained decline in emissions.
Total emissions, including those from land-use change, are projected to reach a record 43.3 billion tonnes in 2026, mainly because of rising land-use emissions.
- Who
- The Global Carbon Project and an international team of scientists. Researchers and climate experts also commented on the findings.
- What
- Fossil-fuel emissions are projected to dip by 0.4% in 2026. Scientists say the Iran-related energy shock is a major reason.
- When
- The projections are for 2026. The report was published on November 10, 2026.
- Where
- The report was published in Earth System Science Data. It is due to be presented at the COP31 climate conference in Antalya, Turkey.
- Why
- Disruption linked to the Iran conflict and the Strait of Hormuz pushed up oil prices and reduced oil emissions; growth in renewable energy also contributed.
Researchers warning the decline may not last
Experts expecting a lasting shift
Durability
Researchers warning the decline may not last
A drop partly caused by geopolitical shocks is not a sustainable climate solution, Pierre Friedlingstein said.
Experts expecting a lasting shift
Some experts say the Iran conflict could accelerate electrification and renewables uptake.
Energy transition
Researchers warning the decline may not last
Renewables and electric vehicles are offsetting some demand growth, but more acceleration is needed for emissions to enter a sustained decline.
Experts expecting a lasting shift
Gabrielle Kuiper said consumer-level electrification is well underway and that its momentum is unstoppable.
The Iran conflict disrupts the Strait of Hormuz and pushes up global oil and gasoline prices.
The Global Carbon Project's report projects a 0.4% decline in fossil-fuel emissions for the year.
The report is due to be presented at the COP31 climate conference in Antalya, Turkey.
- Projected fossil-fuel emissions change in 2026
- Down 0.4% from 2025
- Projected fossil-fuel and cement CO2 emissions
- 38.2 billion tonnes
- Projected total CO2 emissions, including land-use change
- 43.3 billion tonnes in 2026, up from 42.8 billion tonnes in 2025
- Projected oil emissions change
- Down nearly 2%
- Projected coal emissions change
- Up 0.6%
- Remaining carbon budget for 1.5C warming limit
- 150 billion tonnes of CO2
11 sources
Fossil fuel emissions fall due to Iran war, renewables: Research
Las emisiones de origen fósil cayeron en 2026 por la guerra de Irán y las renovables
Iran war helps fuel global drop in fossil fuel emissions — but there’s a catch
War-triggered energy shock causes carbon pollution to fall slightly, study finds
Iran War Unexpectedly Drove Down Carbon Emissions This Year
Analysis: Fossil-fuel CO2 emissions set to dip in 2026 as Iran conflict hits oil use
Renewables and Iran war help drive fall in global fossil fuel emissions
Iran-oorlog leidt tot dipje in uitstoot fossiele brandstoffen
Slight fall in carbon emissions from fossil fuels as Iran war drives renewables push
Global carbon emissions set to fall in 2026 due to Iran energy shock
Emissões de origem fóssil caíram em 2026 por causa da guerra no Irã e das energias renováveis
What people are saying
So in a way, a little bit of good news, but for the wrong reasons.
A decline in fossil CO2 emissions is encouraging, but a reduction driven partly by geopolitical shocks is not a sustainable climate solution,
We've reached the tipping point, particularly on EVs.
permanent shifts are happening