Business · Markets · 2 hrs ago
Analysts See Taiwan Dollar Rebounding by Year-End Despite Recent Weakness
Analysts expect the Taiwan dollar to strengthen by year-end after recent losses driven by jitters over AI stocks.
Taiwan’s strong exports, especially advanced chips, and its large trade surplus support the currency.
The island’s growth forecast has risen to more than 10%, its first expected double-digit expansion since 2010.
Foreign investors’ record stock sales have added to pressure, while high oil prices and stronger US yields also weigh on the currency.
Taiwan’s central bank is expected to focus on limiting sharp swings rather than defending a fixed exchange-rate level.
Earnings from major chipmakers are the next key test for investor flows and currency volatility.
Analysts expect the Taiwan dollar to recover by year-end despite recent weakness driven by global concerns about artificial intelligence stocks.
Oversea-Chinese Banking Corp. forecasts the currency at 31.60 per US dollar, while ING Bank forecasts 31.50.
Analysts cite Taiwan’s economic growth, trade surplus and AI-related exports as support for the currency.
Foreign equity outflows, a strong US dollar and elevated crude prices are adding pressure.
The currency recently approached its year-to-date low of around 32.50 per US dollar.
- Who
- Analysts at Oversea-Chinese Banking Corp., ING Bank and other firms expect the Taiwan dollar to rebound.
- What
- Analysts forecast a year-end recovery despite recent weakness.
- When
- The forecasts concern the end of 2026. The article was published on October 18, 2026.
- Where
- Taiwan’s currency and financial markets.
- Why
- Analysts cite economic growth, a current account surplus and AI-related exports as support, while foreign outflows and US dollar strength weigh on the currency.
This story does not have two clearly opposing sides.
Taiwan’s current account surplus reached a record high of nearly $70 billion.
The Taiwan dollar came under intense pressure amid global jitters over the AI trade.
Foreign investors sold NT$302.6 billion of Taiwan equities, a record daily outflow, and the currency neared its year-to-date low.
OCBC and ING forecast the Taiwan dollar at 31.60 and 31.50 per US dollar, respectively.
- OCBC year-end forecast
- 31.60 per US dollar
- ING year-end forecast
- 31.50 per US dollar
- Record daily equity outflow
- NT$302.6 billion
- Current account surplus
- Nearly $70 billion in late 2025
- Year-to-date low approached
- Around 32.50 per US dollar
What people are saying
Record trade surpluses and AI-related exports continue to generate underlying Taiwan dollar support
The CBC will attempt to keep the Taiwan dollar relatively rangebound
Near-term headwinds include foreign equity outflows and a strong US dollar amid a hawkish Federal Reserve
We expect volatility rather than sustained weakness to be the dominant theme