Business · Economy · 5 hrs ago
São Paulo industrial confidence rises but remains in pessimistic territory
Confidence among São Paulo manufacturers rose to 46.4 points in October, up from 43.5 in September.
The index is still below 50, the threshold for optimism, so it signals that the sector remains pessimistic.
The measure of current conditions edged up to 39.8 points, while expectations climbed to 49.7, close to neutral.
Fiesp said the expectations measure may have improved partly because of the first round of elections earlier in the month.
Manufacturers face pressure from high interest rates, US surcharges on many Brazilian goods, rising input costs and household and business debt.
Fiesp expects difficult conditions in the final quarter of 2026, and says they could continue into 2027.
São Paulo’s industrial confidence index rose to 46.4 points in October but remained in pessimistic territory.
The index was 2.9 points higher than in September and 1.3 points above October 2025.
The current-conditions indicator rose slightly to 39.8 points, while the expectations indicator climbed to 49.7.
Fiesp said the expectations improvement may reflect the first-round election result earlier in the month.
The federation cited high interest rates, US surcharges, rising input costs and debt as pressures on industry.
- Who
- The Federation of Industries of the State of São Paulo (Fiesp) reported the results, based on a survey conducted with the National Confederation of Industry (CNI).
- What
- São Paulo industrial confidence increased but remained below the 50-point threshold separating optimism from pessimism.
- When
- October 2026.
- Where
- São Paulo state, Brazil.
- Why
- Fiesp said expectations may have improved after the first-round election result. It also cited interest rates, US surcharges, raw-material costs and debt as pressures on industry.
This story does not have two clearly opposing sides.
The industrial confidence index stood at 43.5 points.
The first round of elections took place, a result Fiesp said may have contributed to improved expectations.
The index rose to 46.4 points, while remaining below 50.
- Overall index
- 46.4 points in October 2026
- Change from September
- Up 2.9 points from 43.5
- Current conditions
- 39.8 points
- Expectations
- 49.7 points
- Pessimism threshold
- 50 points
What people are saying
This set of factors supports an adverse scenario for industrial activity in the last quarter of 2026, which could extend into 2027.