Science & Tech · Science & Environment · 5 hrs ago
Thwaites Glacier could raise sea levels twice as much as previously projected
Thwaites Glacier in West Antarctica is melting faster than earlier models predicted.
The glacier has been retreating for decades and already contributes to global sea level rise.
A new model estimates it could add up to 1.2 inches by 2100, twice previous estimates.
The researchers say tides let warm seawater flow beneath a wide area of ice, speeding up melting.
The glacier also helps hold back a much larger Antarctic ice sheet, so its loss could have wider effects on sea levels.
The study estimates a 60% chance that the ice will come loose from a key underwater ridge by the end of the century.
If that happens, the glacier could retreat more quickly, but scientists do not expect a complete collapse soon.
A new glacier model suggests Thwaites Glacier could contribute up to 1.2 inches (30 millimetres) to sea-level rise by 2100, twice previous estimates.
The model accounts for warm seawater moving beneath a broad grounding zone, where the ice meets the ocean.
Researchers say the processes are accelerating the glacier’s detachment from underwater ridges that help hold it back.
The study’s findings indicate greater risks of coastal flooding in coming decades.
A separate study reported that Thwaites could continue losing ice for at least 150 years even if ocean-driven melting stopped.
- Who
- Glaciologists from the University of California, Irvine and NASA’s Jet Propulsion Laboratory developed the model.
- What
- A new model projects that Thwaites Glacier could add up to 1.2 inches (30 millimetres) to sea-level rise by 2100, twice previous estimates.
- When
- The projection is for 2100. The articles were published on October 15, 2026.
- Where
- Thwaites Glacier is in West Antarctica.
- Why
- The model includes warm seawater entering a broad grounding zone beneath the ice, a process that causes rapid melting.
This story does not have two clearly opposing sides.
The researchers reconstructed historical glacier change and found it was four times more pronounced than traditional models.
The articles reported new findings that Thwaites could contribute up to 1.2 inches of sea-level rise by 2100.
The study estimates a 60% chance that the glacier will become unpinned from the Mouginot Ridge.
- Projected sea-level rise by 2100
- Up to 1.2 inches (30 millimetres)
- Change from earlier estimates
- Twice as much
- Glacier location
- West Antarctica
- Chance of unpinning by century’s end
- 60%
- Glacier ice loss in separate study
- At least 150 years even with ocean-driven melting switched off
4 sources
Antarctica’s ‘doomsday’ glacier will keep melting even if oceans cool
Doomsday Glacier may raise sea levels twice as much as predicted
Antarctica's 'Doomsday Glacier' is even more dangerous than we thought: Study says sea levels could rise TWICE as much as previous estimates
Scientists find Doomsday Glacier is melting ‘more aggressively’ than thought, with big impacts for sea level rise
What people are saying
Most projections to date have struggled to match the rapidity of the mass loss because of missing physics; our new model with more complete physics can match the record and then produces projections that are twice as large as before.
we have come to acknowledge a different arrangement beneath Earth’s major ocean-terminating glaciers