Science & Tech · AI · 4 hrs ago
Anthropic staff expect AI to take over more work than most US workers do
Anthropic surveyed 1,334 of its employees and compared their answers with those of US adults about AI and work.
Most employees expected AI to handle at least 80% of their jobs by 2030, while about 5% of US workers expected that much.
Anthropic staff also predicted higher unemployment and faster economic growth than US adults did: most expected unemployment above 12% in 2030, while most US workers expected it to stay around or below 8%.
The median employee expected AI to do 95% of the work of building a new AI model by the end of 2030.
One reason for the gap may be that Anthropic employees have larger budgets and access to unreleased AI models, while many US workers are in manual or service jobs.
Evidence so far on AI's effect on employment is mixed, and one Yale research team found no connection with changes in unemployment.
Anthropic says its employees' views may offer an early signal of wider AI adoption, but the survey records expectations, not what will happen.
Anthropic employees expect AI to handle more of their work by 2030 than most US workers expect it to handle of theirs.
In a survey of 1,334 Anthropic employees, most said AI would handle at least 80% of their jobs by 2030, compared with about 5% of US workers.
The median Anthropic employee expected AI to handle 95% of the work of building a new AI model by the end of 2030.
Most Anthropic employees expected unemployment to exceed 12% in 2030, while most US workers thought it would be around or below 8%.
Anthropic employees also predicted higher GDP growth in 2030 than US adults did.
- Who
- Anthropic employees and US adult workers surveyed by Anthropic researchers.
- What
- The surveys found a gap in expectations about how much AI will change work and the economy by 2030.
- When
- The research was published on Friday, October 16, 2026. The forecasts concern 2030.
- Where
- The United States and Anthropic.
- Why
- The surveys compared workers’ views of AI’s future effects; the researchers said Anthropic staff have larger budgets for AI tools and often access unreleased models.
Anthropic employees
US workers
Expected share of jobs handled by AI in 2030
Anthropic employees
Most said AI would handle at least 80% of their jobs.
US workers
About 5% thought AI would handle at least 80% of their jobs.
Expected unemployment in 2030
Anthropic employees
Most expected the rate to exceed 12%.
US workers
Most thought it would be around or below 8%.
Expected GDP growth in 2030
Anthropic employees
The median prediction was 17.1%.
US workers
The median prediction was 5.4%.
Anthropic CEO Dario Amodei said he expected AI to write 90% of code within six months and essentially all code within a year.
Amodei told Axios that AI could eliminate half of entry-level white-collar jobs within five years and raise unemployment to 10% or 20%.
Anthropic published research comparing an internal survey of 1,334 employees with surveys of US adults.
- Anthropic employees surveyed
- 1,334
- AI share of jobs by 2030
- Most Anthropic employees expected at least 80%; about 5% of US workers agreed.
- AI work on a new model
- Median Anthropic employee expected AI to handle 95% by the end of 2030.
- Unemployment expectations
- Most Anthropic employees expected above 12%; most US workers expected around or below 8%.
- Median GDP growth forecast for 2030
- 17.1% among Anthropic employees; 5.4% among US adults.
What people are saying
We're publishing this research because Anthropic runs roughly a year and a half ahead of the economy on AI adoption, so what happens at Anthropic could be a leading indicator for the broader world
US adults and Anthropic staff largely agree about what AI can do today
However, they disagree about how quickly it will improve, how widely it will be used, and how large the productivity gains measured by time saved will be.
unprecedented