Science & Tech · Science & Environment · 8 hrs ago
Climate change could raise corn prices but cut small farmers’ incomes in Mexico
Researchers project climate change will reduce corn harvests in southern and southeastern Mexico between 2061 and 2099.
The study covers eight states, where most corn is grown without irrigation.
It projects that international corn prices could rise by 72.43% as production falls in North America’s corn belt.
But many small farmers keep their corn for their families and animals instead of selling it, so they may not benefit from higher market prices.
With that self-use included, small farmers could lose 5.45% of their real income, the study estimates.
The researchers say models that assume all farmers sell their crops may miss this risk.
The study also questions whether higher government purchase prices alone can protect farming families.
A study by researchers from Universidad Iberoamericana and Tecnológico de Monterrey projects that climate change could raise the international price of corn by up to 72.43%.
The researchers say the price rise would not protect the poorest small-farming households in southern and southeastern Mexico, which could lose 5.45% of real income.
The study attributes the loss to lower harvests and the fact that many small farmers keep corn for their families and animals rather than selling it.
It modeled climate impacts from 2061 to 2099, including lower yields for both rain-fed and irrigated corn.
The study covered eight states in southern and southeastern Mexico.
- Who
- Small corn-farming households in southern and southeastern Mexico, as analyzed by researchers from Universidad Iberoamericana and Tecnológico de Monterrey.
- What
- A study projects that climate change could raise international corn prices while reducing small farmers’ real incomes by 5.45%.
- When
- The study modeled impacts from 2061 to 2099. It was published on November 10, 2026.
- Where
- Veracruz, Tabasco, Chiapas, Guerrero, Oaxaca, Campeche, Yucatán and Quintana Roo.
- Why
- Small farmers may face lower harvests but receive little benefit from higher prices because many keep their corn for household and animal consumption instead of selling it.
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- Projected international corn price increase
- Up to 72.43%
- Projected small-farmer real income change
- Down 5.45%
- Modeling period
- 2061–2099
- Study region
- Veracruz, Tabasco, Chiapas, Guerrero, Oaxaca, Campeche, Yucatán and Quintana Roo
- Rain-fed corn yield scenario
- Down 11.52%