Science & Tech · Science & Environment · 2 hrs ago
UN says overshooting 1.5C warming limit is now unavoidable
A new UN climate report says the world will exceed the 1.5C warming limit in the next few years.
The limit is part of the Paris Agreement, and the report says the goal now is to keep the period above it as short as possible and later bring temperatures back down.
The lowest-overshoot pathway would limit peak warming to about 1.7C to 1.8C before returning to 1.5C or lower by 2100.
But reaching it would require much deeper emissions cuts than countries have pledged, as well as more renewable power, a coal phaseout by 2040 and large-scale carbon removal.
Current pledges would lead to about 2.6C of peak warming, while current policies could lead to about 2.8C; each extra fraction of a degree raises risks to ecosystems and people.
Countries are due to discuss climate action at COP31 in Turkey next month, but the emissions cuts needed for the lowest-overshoot pathway are not currently on the table.
A UN Environment Programme report says global warming will imminently and unavoidably exceed 1.5C above preindustrial levels.
The report says urgent emissions cuts could limit the overshoot and bring temperatures back to 1.5C or below by 2100.
For its lowest-overshoot pathway, global greenhouse gas emissions would need to fall 18% by 2030, 45% by 2035 and 69% by 2040, relative to 2025.
Existing national pledges would cut emissions by only 5% to 8% by 2030 and 11% to 15% by 2035, the report says.
The Guardian gives a different year for the 45% cut, saying it is needed by 2045.
- Who
- The UN Environment Programme issued the report. Executive Director Inger Andersen commented on its findings.
- What
- The report says exceeding the 1.5C warming limit is now unavoidable, but the overshoot can still be limited.
- When
- The report was released Wednesday, October 21, 2026.
- Where
- The report concerns global warming. UNEP is based in Nairobi.
- Why
- Decades of insufficient climate action have made exceeding 1.5C unavoidable, the report says.
This story does not have two clearly opposing sides.
The UN Environment Programme released its annual emissions gap report, saying an overshoot of 1.5C is imminent and unavoidable.
The next round of global climate talks, COP31, is due to take place in Turkey.
- Lowest-overshoot peak
- 1.7C to 1.8C
- Return to 1.5C or below
- By 2100
- Emissions cut needed by 2030
- 18% from 2025 levels
- Emissions cut needed by 2035
- 45% from 2025 levels, according to Kyodo and CNN
- Emissions under existing pledges
- 5% to 8% cut by 2030; 11% to 15% by 2035
- Current-policy warming peak
- About 2.8C, according to CNN and the Guardian
10 sources
Above-1.5 C rise unavoidable amid insufficient climate action: U.N. report
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World must cut emissions by 18% in four years ‘to find our way back’, UN says
‘Overshoot is not surrender’: UN sets out route back to 1.5C
World headed for warming of 2.8C, UN reports, and US emissions rise
UN says 1.5°C is over and world is on track for 2.8°C of global warming
UNEP: Opportunity has ‘been lost’ to meet 1.5C warming limit without ‘overshoot’
Global emissions slow — but world hurtles towards 2 °C of warming
What people are saying
We are now saying this window has closed, but we can open it again by making the overshoot as brief as possible
So, we must pull out all the stops to minimize peak warming and return to 1.5 C by the end of the century. This is possible.
immense
All governments have a job to do, but in particular it is time for major fossil fuel producers such as the US and Saudi Arabia, which produce 20-25% of fossil fuels globally, to stop playing politics and face the scientific reality.