Politics · Brazil · 1 hr ago
Lula and Flávio Bolsonaro are tied ahead of Brazil runoff
President Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva and Senator Flávio Bolsonaro are running neck and neck in Brazil’s campaign for the October 25 presidential runoff.
Recent polls differ in their exact figures, but all place the candidates within the margin of error; one gives each 50% of valid votes.
Bolsonaro won more votes in the first round, while Lula has gained ground in some recent polling.
The polls were conducted around approval of a shorter working week, a measure that was a key Lula campaign pledge and that Bolsonaro also supported.
Lula leads in the northeast and among Bolsa Família recipients, while Bolsonaro leads in the south and among evangelical voters.
Neither candidate has a clear lead, and the surveys show similar levels of voter rejection for both.
The candidates are due to meet in their first debate before voters choose between them on October 25.
Polls published in mid-October put President Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva and Senator Flávio Bolsonaro in a statistical tie ahead of Brazil’s October 25 runoff.
A PoderData/Aya poll found each candidate at 50% of valid votes, while Datafolha and Quaest polls also showed close contests.
The surveys differ in their figures and were conducted at different times, with some interviews taking place before a change to the working week was approved.
Lula leads in the northeast and among Bolsa Família recipients, while Bolsonaro leads in the south and among evangelicals, according to the MercoPress report.
Both candidates had high rejection rates in the polls reported by MercoPress.
- Who
- President Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva and Senator Flávio Bolsonaro.
- What
- They are in a close contest ahead of Brazil’s presidential runoff.
- When
- The runoff is scheduled for October 25, 2026.
- Where
- Brazil.
- Why
- The sources report the polling results but do not state a specific reason for the close race.
Lula campaign
Bolsonaro campaign
Age of criminal responsibility
Lula campaign
Lula said he supports lowering the age of criminal responsibility for the most serious crimes.
Bolsonaro campaign
Bolsonaro has advocated reducing it from 18 to 16.
Campaign priorities
Lula campaign
Lula’s campaign has promoted reducing the working week from 44 to 40 hours.
Bolsonaro campaign
Bolsonaro also voted for the reduction and has promised to maintain current government social programmes and create a Ministry of Prosperity.
PoderData/Aya conducted its poll with 3,000 interviews.
The Senate approved a reduction in the working week from 44 to 40 hours, according to MercoPress.
Poder360 reported the PoderData/Aya poll, which put both candidates at 50% of valid votes.
Brazil is scheduled to hold the presidential runoff.
- PoderData/Aya poll
- Lula 50%; Bolsonaro 50% of valid votes
- PoderData/Aya sample
- 3,000 interviews, conducted October 13–15
- PoderData/Aya margin of error
- 1.8 percentage points
- Datafolha poll
- Bolsonaro 51%; Lula 49% of valid votes
- Runoff date
- October 25, 2026
- First-round results
- Bolsonaro 47.03%; Lula 45.16%
3 sources
What people are saying
My opinion, as a Brazilian citizen, is that for any heinous crime I am in favour of lowering the age of majority.
If I failed to make people understand the government I formed, I cannot blame anyone, the fault is mine.