Politics · Brazil · 1 hr ago
Lula gains among Brazil’s richest, while Flávio Bolsonaro advances across income groups
An analysis of Brazil’s first-round presidential vote compared support for President Lula with results from 2022, when his opponent was Jair Bolsonaro, Flávio Bolsonaro’s father.
It found that Lula lost support in nearly every income group, with the largest drop among middle-income voters, but gained among the richest 4%.
Flávio received more support than his father had across all income groups, including poorer voters.
Lula still won by a wide margin in the poorest areas, while Flávio led across much of the rest of the income range.
The analysis compared votes across small census areas with average household income recorded in Brazil’s 2022 census.
Its findings show how support differs by income, while broader income categories can hide differences within large groups.
The story gives no further election results or next steps.
Flávio Bolsonaro won more votes than his father Jair Bolsonaro across every income group in Folha’s analysis of Brazil’s presidential first-round vote.
President Lula lost votes across nearly all income groups compared with the first round of 2022, but gained support among the richest 4%.
Lula leads among the poorest voters, while Flávio leads in income groups above about 1.6 minimum wages.
Lula’s largest loss was among households whose head earns about 1.71 minimum wages, or R$2,700.
The analysis compared voting across 468,000 census sectors with household-income data from Brazil’s 2022 census.
- Who
- President Lula and Flávio Bolsonaro, compared with Jair Bolsonaro’s vote in 2022.
- What
- Lula lost votes in nearly all income groups but gained among the richest 4%; Flávio gained on his father across all income groups.
- When
- The analysis compares the current first-round vote with the first round of 2022. The current vote date is not stated.
- Where
- Brazil, with a separate comparison for the city of São Paulo.
- Why
- The analysis examines how presidential voting varies with the average income of census sectors; reasons for the shifts are not stated.
Lula
Flávio Bolsonaro
Income groups
Lula
Lula leads among the poorest voters, with his widest advantage at 0.7 minimum wages.
Flávio Bolsonaro
Flávio leads above about 1.6 minimum wages, with his widest advantage at 2.9 minimum wages.
Change from 2022
Lula
Lula lost votes in almost all income groups, but gained among the richest 4%.
Flávio Bolsonaro
Flávio gained votes across all income groups compared with his father’s vote.
The presidential vote used as the comparison point in Folha’s analysis took place.
The census income data used in the analysis was released by IBGE.
Folha published its analysis of first-round voting by income group.
- Census sectors analyzed
- 468,000
- Lula’s widest advantage
- 76% of votes in sectors averaging 0.7 minimum wages
- Flávio’s widest advantage
- 56% of votes in sectors averaging 2.9 minimum wages
- Richest census group
- 16.2 minimum wages; Flávio 50%, Lula 39%
- Class C change for Lula
- Down 5.1 percentage points compared with the first round of 2022










