Science & Tech · Science & Environment · 10 hrs ago
Strong El Niño adds uncertainty to Russia’s winter outlook
A powerful El Niño is developing in the tropical Pacific, where ocean temperatures could rise as much as 3.8°C above normal by late December.
El Niño changes global weather patterns, but its effects vary by region and from one event to another.
Its impact on Russia is indirect, and forecasters say it is difficult to predict the winter there from this event alone.
Russia’s seasonal outlook expects temperatures near or above average across most of the country from October to March, while the Far East is expected to have a harsher winter than last year.
Large temperature swings are likely in many regions, which could help create dangerous weather conditions.
The Far East coast and islands also face a greater chance of stormy weather.
The El Niño may last until February, and meteorologists will continue to update seasonal forecasts as conditions develop.
Russia’s winter outlook is uncertain as a powerful El Niño develops in the tropical Pacific.
The World Meteorological Organization forecasts sea-surface temperatures up to 3.8°C above normal from November 2026 to January 2027, with a peak expected in late December.
Russia’s Hydrometeorological Centre expects temperatures across most of the country during October to March to be near or above long-term averages.
The Far Eastern Federal District is forecast to have a harsher winter than in 2025/2026, with a higher chance of stormy weather on coasts and islands.
Experts say El Niño’s effects on Russia are indirect, and regional winter weather remains difficult to predict.
- Who
- Russia’s Hydrometeorological Centre and other climate and weather experts discussed the outlook.
- What
- A powerful El Niño is adding uncertainty to forecasts for Russia’s winter.
- When
- The seasonal outlook covers October 2026 to March 2027; El Niño is forecast to peak in late December.
- Where
- Russia, with the El Niño developing in the tropical Pacific Ocean.
- Why
- El Niño can shift atmospheric circulation and temperature and precipitation patterns, but its effects vary and are weaker farther from the tropical Pacific.
This story does not have two clearly opposing sides.
Climatologist Alexander Kislov said El Niño would not directly affect weather in Eastern Europe or European Russia.
Russia’s Hydrometeorological Centre published its account of the seasonal climate outlook and the expected winter conditions.
BFM.ru reported that forecasters disagree about whether Russia will have an unusually warm or a severe winter.
The peak sea-surface temperature anomaly is forecast to occur.
- Sea-surface temperature anomaly
- Up to 3.8°C above normal from November 2026 to January 2027
- Expected peak
- Late December 2026
- Russian outlook period
- October 2026 to March 2027
- Most of Russia
- Temperatures expected to be near or above long-term averages
- Far Eastern Federal District
- Winter forecast to be harsher than in 2025/2026
- Forecasting centre
- North Eurasian Climate Centre, based at Russia’s Hydrometeorological Centre
3 sources
What people are saying
WMO does not use the prefix “super” in relation to El Niño or La Niña.
Nobody knows what will happen next.
Forecasts are accurate over a time period averaging up to 10 days.