Study models whether Jesus’s followers could have hidden a fabricated resurrection

Philosopher Nathan Rockwood modeled whether Jesus’s followers could have kept a fabricated resurrection story secret.

He focused on early Christian claims that people saw Jesus alive after his crucifixion, claims that scholars agree were made but explain in different ways.

His model estimated how quickly a witness might reveal a fabrication, assuming each person had a one percent chance of doing so each year and accounting for deaths.

For a group of 16, it predicted a 95 percent chance of exposure within 28 years; for 23, within 17 years.

Rockwood argues that the lack of a reliable record of a confession supports the witnesses’ sincerity, and says this strengthens the case for the resurrection.

The witness groups are reconstructed from Christian texts, not independently verified lists, and the study’s conclusion depends on its assumptions.

Rockwood also considered a report of more than 500 witnesses, while acknowledging that whether it is historical is disputed.