Business · Markets · 4 hrs ago
Korea Investment Securities forecasts S&P 500 rise in November
Korea Investment Securities expects the S&P 500 to rise in November, with the index forecast to trade between 7,360 and 8,040.
The forecast comes as the United States heads into a midterm election year, when voters choose members of Congress.
The firm said the S&P 500 rose in November in 82% of midterm election years since 1958, by an average of 3.8%.
It said the end of election uncertainty could support stocks, and recent declines in major technology shares may make valuations more attractive.
The firm also noted that the October 31 deadline for investors to sell losing shares for tax purposes has passed, potentially freeing them to buy stocks again.
It said technology and consumer discretionary shares are worth watching, including for possible buying by investors who had bet against technology stocks.
The forecast is an estimate, and the firm said investors should watch what happens after the election.
Korea Investment Securities forecast that the S&P 500 would trade between 7,360 and 8,040 in November.
The brokerage said the index has usually risen in November during US midterm election years.
Researcher Jeong Jeong-young cited an 82% historical chance of a November rise since 1958, with an average gain of 3.8%.
The brokerage said recent declines in technology shares and lower valuation multiples could support stocks.
It highlighted information technology and consumer discretionary as sectors to watch.
- Who
- Korea Investment Securities made the forecast. Researcher Jeong Jeong-young discussed the outlook.
- What
- The brokerage forecast an S&P 500 range of 7,360 to 8,040 for November.
- When
- November 2026.
- Where
- The US stock market.
- Why
- The brokerage cited historical gains in midterm election-year Novembers, lower valuations after recent declines and possible buying after the election.
This story does not have two clearly opposing sides.
The S&P 500 fell 0.51% to 7,541.40 in the US market.
Korea Investment Securities issued its November S&P 500 forecast.
- Forecast range
- 7,360–8,040
- Historical November rise probability
- 82% since 1958 in US midterm election years
- Historical average November gain
- 3.8% since 1958 in US midterm election years
- Previous S&P 500 close
- 7,541.40, down 0.51%
- Sectors highlighted
- Information technology and consumer discretionary
What people are saying
In the nine November periods in midterm election years since 1990, the index rose eight times, except during the 1994 bond market shock.
The market views the end of the event itself as a resolution of uncertainty, rather than the midterm election result.
We do not see the large decline in US big tech stocks in October as having broken the long-term upward trend.
The appeal of valuation multiples, lowered by the recent stock price adjustment, could come into focus.