World · East Asia & Pacific · 1 hr ago
Fertility falls below replacement level worldwide for the first time
A study says global fertility fell below replacement level in 2026 for the first time in human history.
Replacement level is the average number of children women need to have for a population to remain stable; worldwide, the figure is about 2.2.
The decline is not limited to wealthy countries: birth rates are falling across middle- and low-income countries, too.
The study found clear downward trends in 219 of 236 countries, and no statistically significant upward trend in 16 others.
Examples include Guatemala, where fertility fell from 3.8 children per woman in 2005 to 1.9 last year, and Thailand, where it is now 0.87.
This reverses the old pattern in which poorer countries generally had more children than richer ones.
The researchers point to modern life as a central factor, while the study notes that population decline will be difficult to reverse.
Global fertility is estimated to have fallen below the replacement level for the first time in 2026.
The worldwide replacement level is about 2.2 births per woman, accounting for countries with high infant mortality or imbalanced sex ratios.
A paper cited by Donga Ilbo says 219 of 236 countries have clear downward fertility trends.
The decline is no longer limited to wealthy countries, with several middle- and low-income countries reporting very low fertility.
Demographer Jesús Fernández-Villaverde points to modernity as a fundamental cause of the global decline.
- Who
- Women worldwide, with fertility declining in nearly all countries.
- What
- Global fertility is estimated to have fallen below the replacement level of 2.2 births per woman for the first time.
- When
- In 2026, according to the paper cited in the article.
- Where
- Worldwide.
- Why
- The article cites modernity as a fundamental cause, while noting other proposed factors such as housing costs and women’s increased participation in work.
This story does not have two clearly opposing sides.
Guatemala’s fertility rate was 3.8 births per woman.
Sri Lanka’s fertility rate was 2.1 births per woman.
Tunisia’s fertility rate was 2.4 births per woman.
Sri Lanka’s fertility rate had fallen to 1.3 births per woman.
The paper estimates global fertility fell below 2.2 births per woman.
- Global replacement level
- About 2.2 births per woman
- Countries with declining trends
- 219 of 236
- Countries with no statistically significant positive trend
- 16
- Israel
- The only country the professor identifies as an exception to the worldwide decline
- Thailand
- 0.87 births per woman
- South Korea
- 0.80 births per woman
1 source
What people are saying
The basic assumptions about fertility have been turned upside down. In the past, it was thought that countries and people with higher incomes and education levels had lower fertility, but now the opposite is increasingly proving true.
Modernity