Politics · India · 3 hrs ago
India’s ageing population will require a shift in policy priorities
India’s population is gradually getting older as people live longer and fewer children are born.
People aged 60 and over make up about 10% of the population now, and their share is projected to double in about two decades.
India still has a median age of 29.2 and close to a billion people aged 15 to 64, but the working-age share is projected to peak by 2031 and then decline slowly.
By 2047, when India aims to become a developed country, these population shifts will be well underway.
The change is gradual, not an immediate crisis, but it will affect the needs of children, working-age adults and older people.
One proposed response is to shift family planning away from encouraging sterilization and towards population rebalancing, as fertility falls and is already below replacement in some states.
Andhra Pradesh has stopped budgeting incentives for sterilization in 2026-27, while Telangana, Rajasthan and Madhya Pradesh have withdrawn some rules limiting people to two children.
India’s population aged 60 and above, currently about 10%, is projected to double after two decades.
The share of working-age adults is projected to peak by 2031 and then decline slowly.
The article says these gradual demographic changes call for policy priorities to shift towards the needs of children, working-age adults and older people.
It argues that family planning should focus on population rebalancing rather than population control.
- Who
- India’s population, including children, working-age adults and older people.
- What
- Demographic shifts are expected to change India’s population structure and require changes in policy priorities.
- When
- The shifts are expected to be underway by 2047; the share of people aged 60 and above is projected to double after two decades.
- Where
- India.
- Why
- People are living longer and fewer children are being born, changing the shares of different age groups.
Population-control approach
Population-rebalancing approach
Policy goal
Population-control approach
Existing population schemes are driven by fears of a population explosion.
Population-rebalancing approach
Policy should account for changing population structure and the needs of different age groups.
Family planning
Population-control approach
National programmes reward terminal methods such as surgical sterilization.
Population-rebalancing approach
The article argues that these methods are misplaced as fertility declines and calls for a rebalancing approach.
The number of babies born in India peaked sometime in this period.
The share of children in India’s population had started declining.
Nearly 70% of married women in Andhra Pradesh had been sterilized.
Andhra Pradesh budgeted no fiscal resources to incentivize male or female sterilization.
The share of working-age adults in the population is projected to peak.
India’s demographic shifts are expected to be well underway.
- Median age
- 29.2 years
- Working-age population
- Close to 1 billion people aged 15 to 64
- Older adults
- About 10% of the population is aged 60 and above
- Replacement fertility rate
- 2.1
- Andhra Pradesh sterilization
- Nearly 70% of married women had been sterilized by 2024
- Working-age share
- Projected to peak by 2031