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Pablo Hernández de Cos leads race to succeed Lagarde at ECB
Pablo Hernández de Cos leads the race to head the European Central Bank, according to a survey of economists.
Twelve respondents picked the former governor of Spain’s central bank, who now leads the Bank for International Settlements, while nine chose Dutch candidate Klaas Knot.
Many respondents expect Christine Lagarde to leave before her term ends in October 2027: more than two-thirds expect her departure by April 2027, and one-quarter expect it in January.
The survey found that only one-third expect her to serve out her full term, down from nearly 60% in the previous survey.
Other senior ECB posts are also due to change hands: Isabel Schnabel plans to leave early for the International Monetary Fund in January 2027, and chief economist Philip Lane’s term ends in May.
EU leaders want to agree on all three appointments together, and German Chancellor Friedrich Merz has said a quick agreement is possible.
The timing of Lagarde’s departure and the choice of successors remain uncertain.
Pablo Hernández de Cos leads economists’ preferences to succeed Christine Lagarde as president of the European Central Bank, according to a Bloomberg survey.
Twelve economists named Hernández de Cos as their preferred candidate, compared with nine for Dutch former central bank chief Klaas Knot.
Lagarde’s term is due to end on 31 October 2027, but most economists surveyed expect her to leave earlier.
The ECB’s executive board is also facing expected vacancies involving Isabel Schnabel and chief economist Philip Lane.
EU leaders want to agree on appointments to three senior positions, while German Chancellor Friedrich Merz said a quick solution could be found.
- Who
- Pablo Hernández de Cos and Klaas Knot are the leading candidates to succeed ECB President Christine Lagarde.
- What
- A Bloomberg survey of economists found Hernández de Cos ahead of Knot, 12 preferences to nine.
- When
- The survey was reported on 23 October 2026. Lagarde’s term is due to end on 31 October 2027, though many respondents expect an earlier departure.
- Where
- At the European Central Bank.
- Why
- The survey concerns the succession to Lagarde; sources say her departure may come early but do not establish a confirmed reason or date.
This story does not have two clearly opposing sides.
Pedro Sánchez publicly backed Hernández de Cos for the ECB presidency.
Reports of the Bloomberg survey said 12 economists favoured Hernández de Cos and nine favoured Klaas Knot.
Isabel Schnabel is expected to leave her ECB post to join the International Monetary Fund.
Philip Lane’s eight-year term as ECB chief economist is due to end.
Lagarde’s ECB term is due to end.
- Hernández de Cos
- Favoured by 12 economists surveyed
- Klaas Knot
- Favoured by 9 economists surveyed
- Hernández de Cos’s current role
- Director general of the Bank for International Settlements
- Lagarde’s scheduled term end
- 31 October 2027
- Isabel Schnabel
- Expected to join the IMF in January 2027
- Philip Lane
- Eight-year term as chief economist ends in May 2027
5 sources
Los economistas ven a De Cos liderando la carrera para sustituir a Lagarde al frente del BCE
De Cos parte como favorito entre los economistas para suceder a Lagarde al frente del BCE
El español Hernández de Cos, favorito entre los economistas para suceder a Lagarde en el BCE
De Cos se sitúa como el favorito para suceder a Lagarde al frente del BCE
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