Business · Economy · 1 hr ago
China’s economy is forecast to grow 4.4% in the third quarter
China’s economy is forecast to grow 4.4% in the third quarter, covering July to September.
That would be slightly faster than the 4.3% growth recorded in the second quarter, but below the government’s 4.5% to 5% target for 2026.
Weak household demand and the property crisis are weighing on growth, while higher energy costs add pressure.
Exports, including products linked to artificial intelligence, have helped support activity, but economists say reliance on overseas sales may not be enough to meet the target.
Beijing has announced mortgage subsidies and infrastructure investment to support the economy.
Official third-quarter figures are due Monday, and will help show whether the announced measures are bringing China closer to its annual goal.
China’s economy is forecast to have grown 4.4% in the third quarter of 2026, according to an AFP survey of economists reported by El Economista MX.
The estimate is below the government’s annual growth target range of 4.5% to 5%.
The forecast would mark a slight improvement from the 4.3% growth recorded in the second quarter.
Economists cite weak domestic demand, a prolonged property crisis and higher energy costs as pressures on growth.
Exports, including demand for products linked to artificial intelligence, have helped support economic activity.
Official third-quarter GDP data were expected to be released on Monday.
- Who
- China’s economy.
- What
- It was forecast to grow 4.4% in the third quarter of 2026.
- When
- July to September 2026.
- Where
- China.
- Why
- Weak domestic demand, the property crisis and higher energy costs are weighing on growth, while exports are supporting activity.
This story does not have two clearly opposing sides.
China’s economy grew 4.3%.
Economists forecast 4.4% growth in China.
Official third-quarter GDP data were expected to be released.
- Third-quarter growth forecast
- 4.4%
- Second-quarter growth
- 4.3%
- Annual target range
- 4.5% to 5%
- Forecast period
- July to September 2026
- Support measures
- Mortgage subsidies for some home purchases and steps to stimulate infrastructure investment
2 sources
What people are saying
The exports seem to be the only element that exceeds expectations
Beijing will have to act more quickly to deploy the funds to achieve the growth target