Business · Trade · 4 hrs ago
Brazil may reopen ethanol import window between December and January
Brazil may reopen its ethanol import window between December and January, according to market forecasts.
The imports would mainly bring US ethanol to the port of Suape in Pernambuco, in northeastern Brazil.
Forecasts put imports at 150 million to 200 million litres from October to March, with most arrivals expected between December and February.
The possible imports come despite expectations of record Brazilian ethanol production in the 2026/27 season.
Rain linked to El Niño has disrupted sugarcane milling in the country’s centre-south, tightening the expected balance between supply and demand; interruptions affect anhydrous ethanol production more than hydrated ethanol production.
Imports become attractive when the cost of US ethanol, including shipping and Brazil’s 18% tariff, falls below the local price of anhydrous ethanol in the Northeast.
The forecast depends on prices and shipping costs: it assumes stable freight, rising Brazilian ethanol prices and cheaper US ethanol during Brazil’s cane off-season.
Brazil may reopen its ethanol import window between December 2026 and January 2027, despite an expected record harvest.
StoneX and Argus say imports are likely to arrive mainly between December 2026 and February 2027.
Argus estimates Brazil could import 150 million to 200 million liters between October 2026 and March 2027.
Rain linked to El Niño has disrupted sugar-cane crushing in the Center-South, tightening the expected supply-demand balance.
The import window opens when the cost of US ethanol, including the 18% tariff and shipping costs, falls below the domestic price of anhydrous ethanol in Brazil’s Northeast.
- Who
- Brazilian ethanol importers may buy from US exporters. StoneX and Argus expect the import window to reopen.
- What
- Brazil may reopen its ethanol import window and bring in 150 million to 200 million liters.
- When
- The window may reopen between December 2026 and January 2027; imports are forecast for October 2026 to March 2027.
- Where
- Imports are expected to arrive at Suape port in Pernambuco, in northeastern Brazil.
- Why
- Rain linked to El Niño disrupted sugar-cane crushing, tightening the supply-demand balance, while market prices may make US ethanol competitive.
This story does not have two clearly opposing sides.
Imports pushed Brazil’s ethanol trade balance into deficit as US ethanol reached the Northeast at a lower price than domestic anhydrous ethanol.
Brazil’s ethanol trade balance returned to positive territory, according to StoneX.
Brazil’s ethanol import window is expected to reopen.
Most of the forecast imports are expected to arrive.
- Forecast import volume
- 150 million to 200 million liters
- Forecast import period
- October 2026 to March 2027
- Expected import arrivals
- Mainly December 2026 to February 2027
- Previous comparable-period imports
- 228.3 million liters
- Import tariff
- 18%
What people are saying
The new forecast is surprising, in a harvest with expectations of record ethanol production