Business · Economy · 2 hrs ago
Bank Danamon raises Indonesia growth forecast to 5.35% for 2026
Bank Danamon raised its forecast for Indonesia’s 2026 growth to 5.35%, up from its previous estimate of 5.2%.
The bank also raised its 2027 forecast to 5.26%, from 5.1%.
Its chief economist said the outlook partly reflects expectations that political changes in the United States could make it harder for President Donald Trump’s government to secure extra funding for the war with Iran.
That could ease pressure on global oil prices, which rose during the conflict and had since fallen from their late-October highs.
The bank also pointed to the possibility of higher oil supply from OPEC+ if tensions ease and refineries resume operating.
Indonesia’s exports have also strengthened, with September 2026 exports up 11.87% from a year earlier, according to the country’s statistics agency.
The economist expects higher export income to support household spending after about two quarters, with the full effect likely to be felt in the first half of 2027.
Bank Danamon raised its forecast for Indonesia’s economic growth in 2026 to 5.35%, from 5.2%.
The bank also raised its 2027 growth forecast to 5.26%, from 5.1%.
Chief Economist Irman Faiz said the improved outlook reflects expectations of easing geopolitical tensions, stronger exports and increased government investment.
He said lower oil prices could ease pressure on the economy if tensions subside and oil supply increases.
Indonesia’s exports reached US$27.59 billion in September 2026, up 11.87% from a year earlier.
- Who
- Bank Danamon, through Chief Economist Irman Faiz, raised the forecasts.
- What
- It raised Indonesia’s growth forecast for 2026 to 5.35% and for 2027 to 5.26%.
- When
- The announcement was reported on November 6, 2026. Faiz discussed the outlook on November 5.
- Where
- At a Bank Indonesia media briefing in Sabang, Aceh.
- Why
- The bank cited easing geopolitical risks, the potential for lower oil prices, stronger exports and increased government investment.
This story does not have two clearly opposing sides.
Brent crude reached US$117.64 per barrel and West Texas Intermediate reached US$104.12 per barrel, their reported highs for the second half of 2026.
The Democratic Party won the US midterm elections, according to the article.
Faiz presented Bank Danamon’s revised forecasts at a Bank Indonesia media briefing in Sabang, Aceh.
Brent crude was US$96.95 per barrel and West Texas Intermediate was US$89.44 per barrel.
- 2026 growth forecast
- 5.35%, up from 5.2%
- 2027 growth forecast
- 5.26%, up from 5.1%
- September 2026 exports
- US$27.59 billion, up 11.87% year on year
- September 2026 non-oil and gas exports
- US$26.64 billion, up 12.39% year on year
- Brent crude, November 5, 2026
- US$96.95 per barrel
What people are saying
House and Senate are held by a Democratic majority. That means it will be harder to add to the Trump administration’s budget to continue the war between the US and Iran, because everything has to go through Congress.
If, for example, geopolitical conflict de-escalates and refineries that were closed because of the conflict reopen, OPEC+ countries can catch up with production, so the oil market will be oversupplied.
Exports rise, export earnings flow down in the form of bonuses and people can spend; the full impact on household consumption will only be felt two quarters later.