Health · Public Health & Disease · 10 hrs ago
Study warns Florida vaccine mandate repeal could bring major measles outbreak
Researchers modeled how measles could spread in Florida if the state ends its school-entry vaccine requirement.
Florida announced plans in September 2025 to end all vaccine mandates, including the requirement for children to receive the measles, mumps and rubella shot before starting school.
Florida’s vaccination rates are already below the level needed to stop measles spreading, the model found.
The researchers estimated that, without the mandate, childhood vaccination could fall to 82 percent in a worst-case scenario.
That scenario produced an outbreak within three to five years, with a peak larger than any U.S. measles outbreak since 1977.
The model also projected that measles deaths among children could reach hundreds within five years if vaccination rates fall, but these are forecasts, not cases that have happened.
Measles spreads easily: one infected person can pass it to 12 to 18 people who have no immunity.
A study warns that ending Florida’s school measles vaccine mandate could lead to the state’s largest measles epidemic in nearly 50 years.
The researchers’ computer model projects that outbreaks could peak higher than in any U.S. year since 1977 if child vaccination rates fall to 82–86 percent.
In a worst-case scenario, the model projects an outbreak within three to five years and hundreds of child deaths within five years.
The researchers say Florida’s current measles vaccination coverage is already below the level needed to prevent the virus from spreading.
The projections are model results, not reports of cases that have already happened.
- Who
- Researchers Alice Oveson of the University of Maryland and Abba Gumel of the Institute for Health Computing produced the study.
- What
- Their model warns that removing Florida’s school measles vaccine mandate could lead to a major outbreak.
- When
- The study was published on October 24, 2026. It projects a possible outbreak within three to five years in a worst-case scenario.
- Where
- Florida.
- Why
- The researchers say the state’s measles vaccination coverage is already below the level needed to stop transmission, and repeal could reduce childhood vaccination further.
This story does not have two clearly opposing sides.
Measles was declared eliminated from the United States.
Florida announced plans to end all its vaccine mandates, including the school-entry MMR requirement.
Earth.com published the study’s warning about the possible effects of ending Florida’s school measles vaccine mandate.
- Florida child MMR coverage
- 91.6 percent on average
- Florida adult MMR coverage
- 92.5 percent on average
- Recent kindergarten MMR coverage
- Closer to 88 percent
- Worst-case child vaccination rate
- 82 percent
- Worst-case outbreak timing
- Within three to five years
What people are saying
Measles is one of the most contagious human pathogens, and we’ve seen a striking 650 percent increase in cases just between 2024 and 2025.