Business · Economy · 7 hrs ago
Lula is expected to end his third term with Brazil’s lowest jobless rate
Brazil’s unemployment rate is expected to end Lula’s third term at 4.9% to 5%.
That would be the lowest rate among Brazilian presidents since the country returned to democracy.
The comparison uses reconstructed historical figures because Brazil’s statistics agency does not have one consistent series covering the whole period.
Unemployment rose under Fernando Henrique Cardoso, fell during Lula’s first two terms, and later rose again during the 2015-16 recession.
The rate then resumed falling, with the decline interrupted by the pandemic and strengthened during Lula’s current term.
Fewer people entering the workforce have also helped reduce pressure on unemployment, alongside government policies and international conditions.
This demographic change may keep joblessness lower, but it also means fewer new workers and adds pressure on pensions and public health funding.
Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva is expected to end his third term with Brazil’s lowest unemployment rate among presidents since the country’s return to democracy.
The rate is projected to be between 4.9% and 5%.
Estadão columnist Pedro Fernando Nery says changes in the labour market reflect both government policies and broader conditions.
The end of the demographic bonus has reduced the number of people entering the workforce and looking for jobs, helping lower the rate.
Researchers have reconciled different historical data series to compare unemployment rates at the end of presidential terms.
- Who
- President Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva is expected to end his third term with the lowest rate. Estadão columnist Pedro Fernando Nery discussed the comparison.
- What
- Brazil’s unemployment rate is projected to finish Lula’s third term at 4.9% to 5%, the lowest among presidents since the return to democracy.
- When
- By the end of Lula’s third term. The sources do not state when that term ends.
- Where
- Brazil.
- Why
- The decline reflects government policies and broader factors, including fewer people entering the workforce and seeking jobs as the demographic bonus ends.
This story does not have two clearly opposing sides.
Growth in the workforce contributed to pressure on unemployment, according to Nery.
Unemployment rose.
Unemployment declined but did not reach current levels.
Unemployment fell somewhat, then rose through the 2015 and 2016 recession.
Unemployment resumed its downward trend, which was temporarily interrupted by the pandemic and later intensified during Lula’s third term.
The unemployment rate is expected to be between 4.9% and 5%.
- Projected rate
- 4.9% to 5%
- Comparison
- Lowest rate among Brazilian presidents since the return to democracy
- Analyst
- Pedro Fernando Nery, Estadão columnist
- Historical series
- IBGE’s current historical series goes back to 2012
- Researchers cited
- Bruno Toni, Thiago Barreira and Rafael Battisti
What people are saying
We are comparing the unemployment rate between different governments at the end of each president’s term
This is the work, for example, of Bruno Toni, Thiago Barreira, Rafael Battisti, which we are using in today’s video