Politics · Brazil · 6 hrs ago
Datafolha poll puts Flávio Bolsonaro at 51% and Lula at 49%
A Datafolha poll puts Flávio Bolsonaro at 51% and Lula at 49% of valid votes in a simulated second round of Brazil’s 2026 presidential election.
The poll was conducted on October 23 and 24, the eve of the vote.
Its margin of error is two percentage points, so the candidates remain technically tied.
In the previous poll, both had 50% of valid votes.
Among voters considered highly likely to cast a ballot, Flávio leads 52% to 48%; among those with medium or low likelihood, Lula leads by the same margin.
The survey interviewed 4,050 people, and the close race leaves no clear poll leader.
A Datafolha poll published on October 24 puts Flávio Bolsonaro at 51% and Lula at 49% of valid votes in a simulated second round of Brazil’s 2026 presidential election.
The candidates remain technically tied because the poll’s margin of error is two percentage points.
Among voters with a high propensity to vote, Bolsonaro leads 52% to 48%; among those with medium or low propensity, Lula leads by the same margin.
The poll interviewed 4,050 people on October 23 and 24, with a 95% confidence level.
In total vote intention, including blank, invalid and undecided responses, Bolsonaro has 48% and Lula 47%.
- Who
- Flávio Bolsonaro (PL) and Lula (PT).
- What
- A Datafolha poll puts Bolsonaro at 51% and Lula at 49% of valid votes in a simulated second round. The result is within the poll’s margin of error.
- When
- The poll was published on October 24, 2026; interviews took place on October 23 and 24.
- Where
- Not stated.
- Why
- Not stated.
This story does not have two clearly opposing sides.
The previous Datafolha poll showed both candidates at 50% of valid votes.
Datafolha interviewed 4,050 people for the poll.
Datafolha released results showing Bolsonaro at 51% and Lula at 49% of valid votes.
- Valid votes
- Bolsonaro 51%; Lula 49%
- Margin of error
- 2 percentage points
- Interviews
- 4,050 people
- Interview dates
- October 23–24, 2026
- Confidence level
- 95%
- TSE registration
- BR-09540/2026