Science & Tech · Science & Environment · 1 hr ago
Extreme drought could shrink habitat for most cactus species by 2100
A new study finds that most of nearly 1,000 cactus species could lose habitat as climate change brings higher temperatures and worsening droughts.
The species live across the Americas, including the iconic saguaro cactus of the Sonoran Desert.
Cacti can survive dry conditions, but many depend on seasonal rain and are adapted to the climates where they evolved.
The researchers used 650,000 observations of wild cacti to help assess how species may fare.
More than a quarter could lose at least 80 percent of their habitat by 2100, according to the study.
Drought may also prevent plants from flowering, reducing reproduction even when it does not kill them outright.
The threat adds to habitat loss and poaching, which already put cacti under pressure.
Researchers say further work could examine which life stages and processes are most affected.
A study finds that worsening drought could shrink habitat for most cactus species as the climate changes.
Researchers modeled nearly 1,000 species and found that more than a quarter could lose at least 80 percent of their habitat by 2100.
The researchers used 650,000 iNaturalist observations of cacti in the wild to help assess how species might fare.
Drought may also affect cacti without killing them, by reducing growth, increasing mortality or interfering with flowering.
Cacti already face habitat loss and poaching for private collections.
- Who
- Researchers led by Michiel Pillet, a conservation ecologist at the University of South Florida.
- What
- A study finds that extreme drought could cause major habitat loss for cactus species. More than a quarter of nearly 1,000 modeled species could lose at least 80 percent of their habitat by 2100.
- When
- The study was reported by Nature on November 11, 2026, and Grist on November 12, 2026. The projections extend to 2100.
- Where
- Across the Americas, where the study examined cacti.
- Why
- Climate change is expected to bring rising temperatures and more intense dry spells, threatening cacti that depend on water.
This story does not have two clearly opposing sides.
Researchers modeled future temperatures and dry spells and used 650,000 iNaturalist observations of cacti in the wild.
More than a quarter of the nearly 1,000 modeled cactus species could lose at least 80 percent of their habitat.
- Species modeled
- Nearly 1,000 cactus species
- Potential habitat loss
- More than a quarter could lose at least 80 percent
- Projection horizon
- 2100
- Wild observations
- 650,000 iNaturalist records
- Lead author
- Michiel Pillet, University of South Florida
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What people are saying
The public perception of cacti tends to be of these organisms that are extremely drought-adapted and are just resilient, can handle anything that you can throw at them
When you take them outside of those conditions, they might not be able to handle that.
When we consider drought conditions, then it turns out that they’re much, much sicker than we previously thought
These results really do change the outlook of cacti, and most likely plants more broadly under climate change.