Business · Economy · 3 hrs ago
IMF Forecast Says Japan Will Fall to Sixth in GDP Ranking
The IMF forecasts India and the UK will overtake Japan next year in the ranking of economies by nominal GDP.
Japan would then be sixth in the world, according to the forecast.
The ranking uses GDP measured in US dollars, so the weak yen affects Japan’s position, but it is not the only factor, the commentary says.
Japan’s share of global nominal GDP fell from 15.3% in 1989 to 3.8% in 2025, while its per-person GDP ranking fell from fourth to 38th.
The commentary argues that Japan’s long-term growth has been weak and links this to outdated systems that can make it hard to put new technology and business ideas into practice.
It also points to population decline, limited movement of workers between jobs and slow turnover among companies.
Reforming those structures could support productivity, and the commentary says economic strength is important to Japan’s international influence.
The International Monetary Fund forecasts that Japan will fall to sixth place in the global GDP ranking next year.
The forecast says India and the United Kingdom will overtake Japan.
A NewsPicks commentary says Japan’s share of global nominal GDP fell from 15.3% in 1989 to 3.8% in 2025.
The commentary argues that Japan’s long-term growth weakness, not only the yen’s exchange rate, is behind its decline.
- Who
- Japan is forecast to fall behind India and the United Kingdom in the GDP ranking.
- What
- The IMF forecasts that Japan will rank sixth in nominal GDP.
- When
- Next year, according to the forecast reported in October 2026.
- Where
- Japan, in the global GDP ranking.
- Why
- The forecast’s reasons are Not stated. A NewsPicks commentary points to long-term low growth as a factor in Japan’s decline.
This story does not have two clearly opposing sides.
This story does not have a timeline yet.
- Forecast rank
- Sixth globally next year
- Countries forecast to overtake Japan
- India and the United Kingdom
- Japan’s share of global nominal GDP
- 15.3% in 1989; 3.8% in 2025
- Japan’s per-capita nominal GDP rank
- 4th in 1989; 38th at the time of the NewsPicks article