Business · Economy · 16 hrs ago
Spain’s fiscal watchdog raises 2026 deficit forecast to 2.8% of GDP
Spain’s independent fiscal watchdog, AIReF, raised its 2026 budget deficit forecast to 2.8% of GDP, two-tenths of a percentage point above its July estimate.
It warned that Spain will miss budget targets agreed with the European Union this year.
AIReF also expects net primary spending, which excludes interest payments, to grow by 7.3%, more than twice the 3.5% limit in Spain’s fiscal plan.
Temporary measures to address the energy crisis, along with climate disasters and the migration emergency in Ceuta, are adding to the deficit.
Without those temporary measures, AIReF estimates the deficit would be 1.9% of GDP.
Spain has had its national budget extended rather than replaced since 2023, and the next government may present a new medium-term fiscal plan after the 29 November election.
Spain’s fiscal watchdog, Airef, raised its 2026 budget deficit forecast by two-tenths of a percentage point to 2.8% of GDP.
The watchdog said Spain would miss budget targets agreed with the European Union this year.
It projected net primary spending growth of 7.3% in 2026, above the 3.5% target in the fiscal plan.
Airef attributed the higher deficit mainly to temporary energy-crisis measures, as well as climate disasters and the migration emergency in Ceuta.
Without the energy-crisis measures, the deficit would be 1.9% of GDP, according to Airef.
- Who
- Spain’s fiscal watchdog, Airef, led by president Inés Olóndriz.
- What
- Airef raised its 2026 deficit forecast to 2.8% of GDP and warned Spain would miss EU-agreed budget targets.
- When
- 2026; the forecast was presented on Wednesday, November 4, 2026.
- Where
- Spain.
- Why
- Mainly because of temporary measures to address the energy crisis, alongside climate disasters and the migration emergency in Ceuta.
This story does not have two clearly opposing sides.
Airef’s previous report forecast a lower deficit and projected net primary spending growth of 4.7%.
Airef said it expected to worsen its deficit forecast by at least one-tenth of a percentage point.
Airef presented its updated forecast, putting the 2026 deficit at 2.8% of GDP.
- 2026 deficit forecast
- 2.8% of GDP
- Change from July forecast
- Increase of 0.2 percentage points
- Net primary spending growth
- 7.3% in 2026
- Fiscal-plan target for spending growth
- 3.5%
- Deficit without energy-crisis measures
- 1.9% of GDP
- Energy-crisis measures
- Government estimate: about €12 billion; Airef estimate of their deficit impact: about €9 billion
What people are saying
Fiscal policy has been expansionary and procyclical
It goes in the opposite direction to what the European authorities recommend
The lack of budget planning once again limits the scope of this report