Business · Economy · 7 hrs ago
World Bank projects India’s poverty rate to fall to 12.1% by 2028
The World Bank projects India’s poverty rate will fall from 14.2% in 2026 to 12.1% by 2028, using a poverty line of $4.20 a day.
From 2011 to 2023, the share of people below that line fell from 57.7% to 16.1%, lifting an estimated 496 million people out of poverty.
The decline was driven mainly by stronger consumption, more employment and expanded social transfers, including food subsidies.
From 2017 to 2023, employment grew by about 134 million people, with major gains as rural women entered paid work.
But youth unemployment rose between the first quarters of FY 2026 and FY 2027, especially among rural young women, while real earnings remained broadly unchanged.
The World Bank says poverty is increasingly concentrated among households with fewer resources and less stable work, and wage gaps remain large.
The World Bank projects India’s poverty rate, measured at $4.2 a day, will fall from 14.2% in 2026 to 12.1% by 2028.
It estimates that the share of India’s population living below that poverty line fell from 57.7% in 2011 to 16.1% in 2023.
The bank says strong consumption growth, rising employment and expanded social transfers helped drive the decline.
It also estimates extreme poverty, measured at $3 a day, fell from 27.1% to 2.6% between 2011 and 2023.
The bank noted that youth unemployment rose between the first quarters of FY 2026 and FY 2027, while real earnings remained broadly unchanged.
- Who
- The World Bank made the projections. India’s poverty rate is the subject.
- What
- The bank projects poverty at $4.2 a day will fall to 12.1% by 2028, from 14.2% in 2026.
- When
- The projection is for 2028, based on a 2026 rate of 14.2%.
- Where
- India.
- Why
- The bank cited strong consumption growth, rising employment and expanded social transfers, including food subsidies.
This story does not have two clearly opposing sides.
The share of India’s population living below $4.2 a day fell from 57.7% to 16.1%, according to the World Bank.
Employment increased by about 134 million people, nearly twice the growth of the working-age population, the bank said.
India’s poverty rate at the $4.2-a-day line is projected at 14.2%.
The World Bank projects India’s poverty rate at the $4.2-a-day line will reach 12.1%.
- Poverty line
- $4.2 a day
- Projected poverty rate
- 12.1% by 2028
- Starting poverty rate
- 14.2% in 2026
- Extreme poverty line
- $3 a day
- People estimated to have left poverty
- 496 million between 2011 and 2023
What people are saying
This progress was mainly driven by strong consumption growth; rising employment, especially among women; and expanded social transfers, including food subsidies.
Labour market conditions continue to be broadly resilient, with labour force participation and employment rates stable between Q1 FY 2026 and Q1 FY 2027.
Under the leadership of PM Narendra Modi, govt's sustained policy efforts are yielding tangible results, strengthening the foundations for inclusive growth and greater economic opportunity.