Politics · United States · 39 mins ago
Latino support for Trump appears to be weakening ahead of US midterms
Latino voters who backed Donald Trump in 2024 appear to be shifting away from Republicans ahead of the US midterm elections.
The elections on November 3 will decide all 435 seats in the House of Representatives and about a third of the Senate.
Trump gained more Latino support in 2024 than in 2020, helping him win the presidency, but polls now show Democrats leading among Latino voters.
Poll results differ, though, and a Republican official cited in one report said the party doubts the surveys show the scale of the change.
Rising living costs and concerns about the economy are major factors for Latino voters, alongside health care, education and immigration.
Some voters also say Trump’s immigration crackdown has hurt their communities.
A Democratic gain among Latino voters could help the party win back the House, while the Senate contest is described as less certain.
Latino support for Donald Trump appears to have weakened ahead of the November 3 US midterm elections.
A New York Times calculation based on recent polls found Democrats leading likely Latino voters by 35 percentage points.
The same calculation put Democratic support at 64 per cent and Republican support at 29 per cent.
Matt Barreto, a UCLA professor and pollster, described the shift as a rejection of Trump rather than growing support for Democrats.
Economic concerns, including prices and health care costs, are among the issues motivating Latino voters.
- Who
- Latino voters in the United States, including some who supported Trump in 2024.
- What
- Polls indicate that support for Trump and Republicans among Latino voters has weakened.
- When
- Ahead of the US midterm elections on November 3, 2026.
- Where
- United States.
- Why
- Sources cite frustration over the economy and the cost of living; some voters also oppose Trump’s immigration crackdown.
Matt Barreto and Democratic-leaning polling
Jaime Flórez and the Republican National Committee
Poll findings
Matt Barreto and Democratic-leaning polling
Barreto says polls show a sharp move away from Trump among Latino voters.
Jaime Flórez and the Republican National Committee
Flórez says Republicans doubt the polls and expect any decline in Latino support to be much smaller than they suggest.
Meaning of the shift
Matt Barreto and Democratic-leaning polling
Barreto says the change reflects rejection of Trump more than increased support for Democrats.
Jaime Flórez and the Republican National Committee
Flórez says a decline is possible but disputes the scale indicated by polls.
Trump won 48 per cent of Latino votes, according to the figures reported by UOL.
Trump’s second term began, and his approval among Latino voters who backed him in 2024 was higher than it was in the later Pew survey.
A Pew survey of 5,000 Americans found that the economy was the leading voting concern among Latino respondents.
US midterm elections are scheduled, with all 435 House seats and one-third of the Senate seats up for election.
- Democratic lead among likely Latino voters
- 35 percentage points
- Recent poll support
- Democrats 64%; Republicans 29%
- Trump’s Latino vote in 2024
- 48%
- Latino voters eligible to vote
- 39 million, according to Pew Research Center
- Latino share of the electorate
- 16%
5 sources
Apoio a Trump entre latinos cai às vésperas da eleição para Congresso dos EUA
They voted for Trump last time. Now some are having second thoughts
Deep Read: Warum Trump bei entscheidenden Wählergruppen an Zustimmung verliert
Matt Barreto: ‘More than a reversal or a shift in voting trends, the Latino vote is a repudiation of Trump’
What people are saying
If I had known this man was going to behave this way, I would not have voted for him. And I regret voting for him.
He promised to give us money. But he didn't give us anything. What he gave us this time was problems.
The economy has gotten worse, especially for Latino and working-class voters.