Business · Energy & Commodities · 2 hrs ago
IEA chief says oil markets are unlikely to normalize in 2027
IEA chief Fatih Birol says oil markets are unlikely to return to normal in 2027 as conflict and supply risks persist in the Middle East.
The warning came at a meeting in London as Brent crude traded above $110 a barrel.
The conflict has disrupted oil supplies and damaged Gulf refineries, while attacks and threats around the Strait of Hormuz have raised shipping and insurance costs.
The strait carried about a fifth of the world’s oil and natural gas before the war, and tanker traffic remains below earlier levels, although oil flows have partly recovered.
Diesel prices have risen sharply, adding costs for transport, farming and industry as demand typically increases in the colder season.
IEA member countries agreed in March to release 400 million barrels from emergency reserves, and about 80% has already been released.
The IEA may coordinate further reserve releases if member countries decide they are needed, with the timing depending on market conditions.
IEA chief Fatih Birol said he sees no credible path for oil markets to return to normal in 2027.
He warned that further crises in the Middle East could worsen pressure on energy markets.
Oil prices were above $110 a barrel on Oct. 20, while diesel prices had risen sharply.
The IEA has coordinated the release of 400 million barrels from emergency reserves, and member countries may consider further releases.
Attacks and disruption around the Strait of Hormuz have kept supply and shipping risks in focus.
- Who
- Fatih Birol, executive director of the International Energy Agency.
- What
- He said oil markets are unlikely to return to normal in 2027 and warned of risks from further Middle East crises.
- When
- Oct. 20, 2026.
- Where
- At an industry gathering in London.
- Why
- The ongoing conflict and risks to energy supplies and shipping are keeping markets under pressure.
This story does not have two clearly opposing sides.
U.S. and Israeli attacks on Iran triggered the war and Gulf supply disruptions, according to Hürriyet Daily News.
IEA member countries agreed to release 400 million barrels of emergency oil reserves.
Birol said he saw no credible pathway for oil markets to normalize in 2027.
Brent crude traded above $111 a barrel, according to CNN and Asharq Al-Awsat.
- IEA chief
- Fatih Birol
- Market outlook
- No credible pathway for 2027 normalization, Birol said
- Emergency reserve release
- 400 million barrels
- IEA member countries
- 32, according to CNN
- Brent crude
- Above $111 a barrel on Oct. 20, according to CNN
- Hormuz oil flows
- About 82% of prewar levels, according to data cited by Asharq Al-Awsat
4 sources
IEA chief sees little chance of oil market 'normalization' next year
النفط فوق 110 دولارات مع تصاعد مخاطر الإمدادات في الشرق الأوسط
Oil parked above $110 a barrel as IEA warns energy markets won’t return to normal next year
Precios del petróleo alcanzan su mayor nivel en cinco meses: Barril costaría más de 100 dólares hasta 2027
What people are saying
I don’t see any credible pathway that 2027 will be a year of normalisation
I’m very worried that there will be some overlapping crises in the Middle East … and it may further escalate the situation, which will have serious implications for energy markets
It's a big thing, 400 million barrels, but it's only 20 percent of the oil we have — 80 percent is in the pocket
We are on thin ice and I am very worried about this.